Several Republican-held Senate seats in 2026, including open races in Iowa and Texas plus the Ohio special election, show the narrowest polling margins and highest uncertainty in recent surveys, with Iowa and Texas frequently within 2-3 points. Trader consensus reflects these contests as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins due to shifting voter coalitions in states carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle. Recent polling averages from multiple outlets place Democratic candidates in slight edges or dead heats in Iowa (Turek vs. Hinson), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), and Alaska (Peltola vs. Sullivan), while Ohio's special contest remains competitive. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, turnout efforts in key voting blocs, or national economic signals could widen margins in these races before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIowa 17.6%
Texas 16%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
Alaska 10%
$50,517 Vol.
$50,517 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Iowa
18%
Texas
16%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Alaska
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
8%
Michigan
5%
New Hampshire
3%
Montana
2%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
2%
Florida (Special)
2%
New Mexico
2%
North Carolina
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Iowa 17.6%
Texas 16%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
Alaska 10%
$50,517 Vol.
$50,517 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Iowa
$3,752 Vol.
18%
Texas
$2,429 Vol.
16%
Ohio (Special)
$9,206 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$8,468 Vol.
10%
Maine
$2,260 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$3,661 Vol.
8%
Michigan
$7,420 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$904 Vol.
3%
Montana
$1,653 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$5,076 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
Florida (Special)
$460 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$1,557 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,569 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats in 2026, including open races in Iowa and Texas plus the Ohio special election, show the narrowest polling margins and highest uncertainty in recent surveys, with Iowa and Texas frequently within 2-3 points. Trader consensus reflects these contests as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins due to shifting voter coalitions in states carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle. Recent polling averages from multiple outlets place Democratic candidates in slight edges or dead heats in Iowa (Turek vs. Hinson), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), and Alaska (Peltola vs. Sullivan), while Ohio's special contest remains competitive. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, turnout efforts in key voting blocs, or national economic signals could widen margins in these races before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$50,517Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats in 2026, including open races in Iowa and Texas plus the Ohio special election, show the narrowest polling margins and highest uncertainty in recent surveys, with Iowa and Texas frequently within 2-3 points. Trader consensus reflects these contests as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins due to shifting voter coalitions in states carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle. Recent polling averages from multiple outlets place Democratic candidates in slight edges or dead heats in Iowa (Turek vs. Hinson), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), and Alaska (Peltola vs. Sullivan), while Ohio's special contest remains competitive. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, turnout efforts in key voting blocs, or national economic signals could widen margins in these races before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$50,517Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Several Republican-held Senate seats in 2026, including open races in Iowa and Texas plus the Ohio special election, show the narrowest polling margins and highest uncertainty in recent surveys, with Iowa and Texas frequently within 2-3 points. Trader consensus reflects these contests as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins due to shifting voter coalitions in states carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle. Recent polling averages from multiple outlets place Democratic candidates in slight edges or dead heats in Iowa (Turek vs. Hinson), Texas (Talarico vs. Paxton), and Alaska (Peltola vs. Sullivan), while Ohio's special contest remains competitive. Late-cycle developments such as candidate debates, turnout efforts in key voting blocs, or national economic signals could widen margins in these races before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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