Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa lead the market due to their mix of moderate incumbents, shifting voter blocs, and histories of narrow margins in recent cycles. The Ohio special election between appointed Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown adds uncertainty, with early polls showing tight or slight Democratic leads that could compress further. Limited statewide polling, ongoing candidate positioning after primaries, and national midterm dynamics keep these contests clustered near the top. Upcoming events such as fundraising disclosures, candidate debates, and late-cycle advertising could widen gaps by clarifying turnout patterns or revealing vulnerabilities in battleground states.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTexas 18%
Maine 17%
Alaska 13%
Iowa 10.5%
$23,126 Vol.
$23,126 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
18%
Maine
17%
Alaska
13%
Iowa
10%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
5%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Mexico
3%
North Carolina
3%
Colorado
3%
Georgia
3%
Virginia
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Texas 18%
Maine 17%
Alaska 13%
Iowa 10.5%
$23,126 Vol.
$23,126 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$361 Vol.
18%
Maine
$460 Vol.
17%
Alaska
$4,928 Vol.
13%
Iowa
$2,410 Vol.
10%
Ohio (Special)
$3,527 Vol.
10%
Nebraska
$256 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$1,412 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$480 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$196 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$155 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$541 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$657 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$747 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,017 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,451 Vol.
1%
Montana
$526 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa lead the market due to their mix of moderate incumbents, shifting voter blocs, and histories of narrow margins in recent cycles. The Ohio special election between appointed Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown adds uncertainty, with early polls showing tight or slight Democratic leads that could compress further. Limited statewide polling, ongoing candidate positioning after primaries, and national midterm dynamics keep these contests clustered near the top. Upcoming events such as fundraising disclosures, candidate debates, and late-cycle advertising could widen gaps by clarifying turnout patterns or revealing vulnerabilities in battleground states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$23,126Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa lead the market due to their mix of moderate incumbents, shifting voter blocs, and histories of narrow margins in recent cycles. The Ohio special election between appointed Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown adds uncertainty, with early polls showing tight or slight Democratic leads that could compress further. Limited statewide polling, ongoing candidate positioning after primaries, and national midterm dynamics keep these contests clustered near the top. Upcoming events such as fundraising disclosures, candidate debates, and late-cycle advertising could widen gaps by clarifying turnout patterns or revealing vulnerabilities in battleground states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$23,126Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa lead the market due to their mix of moderate incumbents, shifting voter blocs, and histories of narrow margins in recent cycles. The Ohio special election between appointed Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown adds uncertainty, with early polls showing tight or slight Democratic leads that could compress further. Limited statewide polling, ongoing candidate positioning after primaries, and national midterm dynamics keep these contests clustered near the top. Upcoming events such as fundraising disclosures, candidate debates, and late-cycle advertising could widen gaps by clarifying turnout patterns or revealing vulnerabilities in battleground states.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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