Several Senate contests remain highly competitive heading into the November 3 election, driven by recent polling averages showing margins of 1–4 points in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa. National midterm dynamics, including voter dissatisfaction with inflation, energy costs, and the ongoing Iran conflict, have narrowed traditional partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, along with Democratic challenges to Republican incumbents in Maine and Alaska, have kept these races fluid. Recent primary resolutions and candidate substitutions have stabilized fields without dramatically shifting aggregates, leaving trader consensus focused on these states as the most likely to finish within 5 points based on current evidence and historical midterm patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$62,797 Vol.
Texas
84%
Kansas
71%
Alaska
69%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
61%
Ohio (Especial)
56%
Maine
55%
New Hampshire
66%
Nebraska
49%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Especial)
25%
Carolina del Norte
24%
Minnesota
22%
Nuevo México
12%
Montana
8%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
4%
South Carolina
56%
$62,797 Vol.
Texas
84%
Kansas
71%
Alaska
69%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
61%
Ohio (Especial)
56%
Maine
55%
New Hampshire
66%
Nebraska
49%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Especial)
25%
Carolina del Norte
24%
Minnesota
22%
Nuevo México
12%
Montana
8%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
4%
South Carolina
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Several Senate contests remain highly competitive heading into the November 3 election, driven by recent polling averages showing margins of 1–4 points in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa. National midterm dynamics, including voter dissatisfaction with inflation, energy costs, and the ongoing Iran conflict, have narrowed traditional partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, along with Democratic challenges to Republican incumbents in Maine and Alaska, have kept these races fluid. Recent primary resolutions and candidate substitutions have stabilized fields without dramatically shifting aggregates, leaving trader consensus focused on these states as the most likely to finish within 5 points based on current evidence and historical midterm patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado

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