Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by expectations of policy normalization after the ongoing easing cycle concludes amid projected eurozone recovery and lingering core inflation above 2%. The ECB's October 17 decision to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%—while signaling data-dependent pauses—reinforced this view, as October flash CPI hit 2.0% headline (core 2.7%) and wage growth remains robust. No-change odds at 24% reflect potential steady-state scenarios, with low probabilities on larger moves indicating tight clustering around gradual adjustment. Key catalysts include the December 12 policy meeting and Q4 GDP data, which could refine rate path expectations versus ECB staff projections of 1.9% inflation in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 67%
No change 24%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
24%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
67%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
5%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 67%
No change 24%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$575 Vol.
3%
No change
$754 Vol.
24%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$690 Vol.
67%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by expectations of policy normalization after the ongoing easing cycle concludes amid projected eurozone recovery and lingering core inflation above 2%. The ECB's October 17 decision to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%—while signaling data-dependent pauses—reinforced this view, as October flash CPI hit 2.0% headline (core 2.7%) and wage growth remains robust. No-change odds at 24% reflect potential steady-state scenarios, with low probabilities on larger moves indicating tight clustering around gradual adjustment. Key catalysts include the December 12 policy meeting and Q4 GDP data, which could refine rate path expectations versus ECB staff projections of 1.9% inflation in 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$2,019Fecha de finalización
Jun 11, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by expectations of policy normalization after the ongoing easing cycle concludes amid projected eurozone recovery and lingering core inflation above 2%. The ECB's October 17 decision to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%—while signaling data-dependent pauses—reinforced this view, as October flash CPI hit 2.0% headline (core 2.7%) and wage growth remains robust. No-change odds at 24% reflect potential steady-state scenarios, with low probabilities on larger moves indicating tight clustering around gradual adjustment. Key catalysts include the December 12 policy meeting and Q4 GDP data, which could refine rate path expectations versus ECB staff projections of 1.9% inflation in 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$2,019Fecha de finalización
Jun 11, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability of a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike at the June 2026 meeting, driven by expectations of policy normalization after the ongoing easing cycle concludes amid projected eurozone recovery and lingering core inflation above 2%. The ECB's October 17 decision to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%—while signaling data-dependent pauses—reinforced this view, as October flash CPI hit 2.0% headline (core 2.7%) and wage growth remains robust. No-change odds at 24% reflect potential steady-state scenarios, with low probabilities on larger moves indicating tight clustering around gradual adjustment. Key catalysts include the December 12 policy meeting and Q4 GDP data, which could refine rate path expectations versus ECB staff projections of 1.9% inflation in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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