The dominant 98.9% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting stems from Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes that have lifted eurozone headline inflation risks and shorter-term expectations. April Governing Council communications highlighted broad support for preemptive tightening absent a rapid energy reversal, while resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects have reinforced the data-dependent case for action from the current 2.00% level. A softer-than-expected inflation print or swift decline in energy costs could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 98.8%
No change 1.2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$828,810 Vol.
$828,810 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 98.8%
No change 1.2%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$828,810 Vol.
$828,810 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$111,059 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$126,190 Vol.
<1%
No change
$181,123 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$182,989 Vol.
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$227,568 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The dominant 98.9% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting stems from Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes that have lifted eurozone headline inflation risks and shorter-term expectations. April Governing Council communications highlighted broad support for preemptive tightening absent a rapid energy reversal, while resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects have reinforced the data-dependent case for action from the current 2.00% level. A softer-than-expected inflation print or swift decline in energy costs could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$828,810Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The dominant 98.9% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting stems from Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes that have lifted eurozone headline inflation risks and shorter-term expectations. April Governing Council communications highlighted broad support for preemptive tightening absent a rapid energy reversal, while resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects have reinforced the data-dependent case for action from the current 2.00% level. A softer-than-expected inflation print or swift decline in energy costs could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$828,810Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 98.9% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting stems from Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes that have lifted eurozone headline inflation risks and shorter-term expectations. April Governing Council communications highlighted broad support for preemptive tightening absent a rapid energy reversal, while resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects have reinforced the data-dependent case for action from the current 2.00% level. A softer-than-expected inflation print or swift decline in energy costs could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though such developments would need to materialize quickly ahead of the decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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