Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions have lifted eurozone headline inflation to 3.2% in May and prompted upward revisions to 2026 forecasts, driving the ECB’s April 30 hold and subsequent signals of tightening. Trader consensus now assigns a 99.3% implied probability to a 25 basis point deposit rate increase to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, aligning with economist surveys showing over 90% support for the move amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, yet the Governing Council has highlighted intensified upside risks. Softer-than-expected June inflation prints or a swift reversal in energy costs could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.2%
No change <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$761,921 Vol.
$761,921 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 99.2%
No change <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$761,921 Vol.
$761,921 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$122,234 Vol.
<1%
No change
$165,264 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$173,790 Vol.
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$196,303 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions have lifted eurozone headline inflation to 3.2% in May and prompted upward revisions to 2026 forecasts, driving the ECB’s April 30 hold and subsequent signals of tightening. Trader consensus now assigns a 99.3% implied probability to a 25 basis point deposit rate increase to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, aligning with economist surveys showing over 90% support for the move amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, yet the Governing Council has highlighted intensified upside risks. Softer-than-expected June inflation prints or a swift reversal in energy costs could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$761,921Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions have lifted eurozone headline inflation to 3.2% in May and prompted upward revisions to 2026 forecasts, driving the ECB’s April 30 hold and subsequent signals of tightening. Trader consensus now assigns a 99.3% implied probability to a 25 basis point deposit rate increase to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, aligning with economist surveys showing over 90% support for the move amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, yet the Governing Council has highlighted intensified upside risks. Softer-than-expected June inflation prints or a swift reversal in energy costs could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$761,921Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions have lifted eurozone headline inflation to 3.2% in May and prompted upward revisions to 2026 forecasts, driving the ECB’s April 30 hold and subsequent signals of tightening. Trader consensus now assigns a 99.3% implied probability to a 25 basis point deposit rate increase to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, aligning with economist surveys showing over 90% support for the move amid resilient labor markets and concerns over second-round effects. Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, yet the Governing Council has highlighted intensified upside risks. Softer-than-expected June inflation prints or a swift reversal in energy costs could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes