Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that pushed euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May, its highest level since 2023, prompting near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% from the current 2.00% level at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside resilient labor markets, heightening concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening, consistent with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still support an unchanged policy outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 98.6%
No change 1.1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$718,190 Vol.
$718,190 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 98.6%
No change 1.1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$718,190 Vol.
$718,190 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,331 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$120,422 Vol.
<1%
No change
$161,914 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$169,810 Vol.
99%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$161,713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that pushed euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May, its highest level since 2023, prompting near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% from the current 2.00% level at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside resilient labor markets, heightening concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening, consistent with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still support an unchanged policy outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$718,190Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that pushed euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May, its highest level since 2023, prompting near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% from the current 2.00% level at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside resilient labor markets, heightening concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening, consistent with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still support an unchanged policy outcome.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$718,190Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price spikes that pushed euro-area headline inflation to 3.2% in May, its highest level since 2023, prompting near-unanimous trader positioning for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% from the current 2.00% level at the June 11 meeting. April data showed rising shorter-term inflation expectations alongside resilient labor markets, heightening concerns over second-round effects and shifting consensus toward preemptive tightening, consistent with economist surveys assigning roughly 85% probability to the move. Softer-than-expected inflation prints or rapid energy price reversals remain the primary scenarios that could still support an unchanged policy outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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