Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 Vol.
$1,056,849 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
No
25 bps decrease
No
No change
No
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
Sí
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
No
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
No change <1%
$1,056,849 Vol.
$1,056,849 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$111,059 Vol.
No
25 bps decrease
$131,618 Vol.
No
No change
$249,356 Vol.
No
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$272,346 Vol.
Sí
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$292,470 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,056,849Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$1,056,849Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to the European Central Bank delivering a 25 basis point rate hike at its June 2026 meeting, reflecting the latest inflation trajectory and labor market data that have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. Recent communications from ECB officials have highlighted persistent price pressures above the 2% target, with forward-looking indicators such as core CPI and wage growth supporting the case for an immediate adjustment to the deposit facility rate. Market-implied odds embed these fundamentals while acknowledging that a sharp deterioration in growth indicators or an unexpected dovish shift in guidance ahead of the decision could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear limited given the current data path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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