Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$252,826 Vol.
$252,826 Vol.
11 abr 2026
<40
2%
40-64
25%
65-89
44%
90-114
22%
115-139
5%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 44%
40-64 25%
90-114 22%
115-139 5%
$252,826 Vol.
$252,826 Vol.
11 abr 2026
<40
$31,746 Vol.
2%
40-64
$15,096 Vol.
25%
65-89
$15,401 Vol.
44%
90-114
$11,423 Vol.
22%
115-139
$11,361 Vol.
5%
140-164
$26,661 Vol.
1%
165-189
$19,785 Vol.
1%
190-214
$36,125 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$37,145 Vol.
<1%
240+
$48,772 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$252,826Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$252,826Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from April 9 12:00 PM ET to April 11 12:00 PM ET, anchored by the April 6-8 market resolving exactly in that range amid his recent daily average of 33 posts tracked through April 3-10 (199 total at 86% progress). This moderate positioning reflects Musk's variable X activity—spiking during viral AI announcements like Colossus 2 training updates or Tesla inventory pushes, but tempered by commitments to xAI, SpaceX, and DOGE. Lower ranges like 40-64 (24.5%) and 90-114 (21.5%) capture uncertainty from his unpredictable engagement bursts, with no major catalysts in the last 48 hours shifting sentiment ahead of the April 11 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes