Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 54% implied probability for Japan's February unemployment rate at 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% print, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics amid cooling job openings and steady household spending data released last week. The Bank of Japan's focus on wage growth and employment stability—bolstered by record shunto wage hikes announced in mid-March—supports expectations of low but ticking-higher unemployment around 2.6-2.9%, with lower outcomes like ≤2.4% (3%) dismissed due to persistent worker shortages evidenced by the jobs-to-applicants ratio holding near 1.25. Upcoming official Statistics Bureau release on April 5 could shift sentiment, as any deviation from consensus forecasts may influence BOJ rate path expectations amid sub-2% inflation pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado2.7% 49%
2.8% 16%
2.6% 12%
2.9% 7.7%
$34,342 Vol.
$34,342 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
≤2.4%
3%
2.5%
2%
2.6%
12%
2.7%
49%
2.8%
16%
2.9%
8%
≥3.0%
3%
2.7% 49%
2.8% 16%
2.6% 12%
2.9% 7.7%
$34,342 Vol.
$34,342 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
≤2.4%
$13,471 Vol.
3%
2.5%
$0 Vol.
2%
2.6%
$278 Vol.
12%
2.7%
$507 Vol.
49%
2.8%
$405 Vol.
16%
2.9%
$18,830 Vol.
8%
≥3.0%
$850 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 54% implied probability for Japan's February unemployment rate at 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% print, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics amid cooling job openings and steady household spending data released last week. The Bank of Japan's focus on wage growth and employment stability—bolstered by record shunto wage hikes announced in mid-March—supports expectations of low but ticking-higher unemployment around 2.6-2.9%, with lower outcomes like ≤2.4% (3%) dismissed due to persistent worker shortages evidenced by the jobs-to-applicants ratio holding near 1.25. Upcoming official Statistics Bureau release on April 5 could shift sentiment, as any deviation from consensus forecasts may influence BOJ rate path expectations amid sub-2% inflation pressures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$34,342Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 54% implied probability for Japan's February unemployment rate at 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% print, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics amid cooling job openings and steady household spending data released last week. The Bank of Japan's focus on wage growth and employment stability—bolstered by record shunto wage hikes announced in mid-March—supports expectations of low but ticking-higher unemployment around 2.6-2.9%, with lower outcomes like ≤2.4% (3%) dismissed due to persistent worker shortages evidenced by the jobs-to-applicants ratio holding near 1.25. Upcoming official Statistics Bureau release on April 5 could shift sentiment, as any deviation from consensus forecasts may influence BOJ rate path expectations amid sub-2% inflation pressures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$34,342Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 54% implied probability for Japan's February unemployment rate at 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% print, reflecting resilient labor market dynamics amid cooling job openings and steady household spending data released last week. The Bank of Japan's focus on wage growth and employment stability—bolstered by record shunto wage hikes announced in mid-March—supports expectations of low but ticking-higher unemployment around 2.6-2.9%, with lower outcomes like ≤2.4% (3%) dismissed due to persistent worker shortages evidenced by the jobs-to-applicants ratio holding near 1.25. Upcoming official Statistics Bureau release on April 5 could shift sentiment, as any deviation from consensus forecasts may influence BOJ rate path expectations amid sub-2% inflation pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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