Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's long Democratic dominance, his strong primary performance with nearly 89 percent of the vote, and favorable fundamentals including high name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 25 points. Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006, and nominee Gary Cordery, a businessman who captured about 76 percent in his primary, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter base in a state with a pronounced partisan lean. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest as solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election include major scandals, significant shifts in state economic conditions, or unexpected national political developments that alter turnout patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de gobernador de Hawái
Ganador de las elecciones de gobernador de Hawái
$16,329 Vol.
$16,329 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Josh Green (D)
97%
Gary Cordery (R)
2%
$16,329 Vol.
$16,329 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Josh Green (D)
$7,024 Vol.
97%
Gary Cordery (R)
$9,305 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's long Democratic dominance, his strong primary performance with nearly 89 percent of the vote, and favorable fundamentals including high name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 25 points. Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006, and nominee Gary Cordery, a businessman who captured about 76 percent in his primary, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter base in a state with a pronounced partisan lean. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest as solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election include major scandals, significant shifts in state economic conditions, or unexpected national political developments that alter turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volumen
$16,329Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's long Democratic dominance, his strong primary performance with nearly 89 percent of the vote, and favorable fundamentals including high name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 25 points. Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006, and nominee Gary Cordery, a businessman who captured about 76 percent in his primary, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter base in a state with a pronounced partisan lean. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest as solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election include major scandals, significant shifts in state economic conditions, or unexpected national political developments that alter turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$16,329Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race due to the state's long Democratic dominance, his strong primary performance with nearly 89 percent of the vote, and favorable fundamentals including high name recognition and prior general-election margins exceeding 25 points. Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006, and nominee Gary Cordery, a businessman who captured about 76 percent in his primary, faces structural disadvantages in fundraising and voter base in a state with a pronounced partisan lean. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest as solidly Democratic. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before the November 3 general election include major scandals, significant shifts in state economic conditions, or unexpected national political developments that alter turnout patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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