Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold entering the 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean and incumbent Ed Case's established position since 2019. The district has delivered Democratic victories by wide margins in recent cycles, supported by voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Case advanced past a primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole on August 8, 2026, while the Republican side features nominee Adriel Lam with minimal statewide profile. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with historical results where no Republican has won the seat since the 1980s. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or significant national political realignment could still affect outcomes, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the trailing party.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$28,336 Vol.
$28,336 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,677 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$13,658 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold entering the 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean and incumbent Ed Case's established position since 2019. The district has delivered Democratic victories by wide margins in recent cycles, supported by voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Case advanced past a primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole on August 8, 2026, while the Republican side features nominee Adriel Lam with minimal statewide profile. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with historical results where no Republican has won the seat since the 1980s. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or significant national political realignment could still affect outcomes, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the trailing party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$28,336Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold entering the 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean and incumbent Ed Case's established position since 2019. The district has delivered Democratic victories by wide margins in recent cycles, supported by voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Case advanced past a primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole on August 8, 2026, while the Republican side features nominee Adriel Lam with minimal statewide profile. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with historical results where no Republican has won the seat since the 1980s. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or significant national political realignment could still affect outcomes, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the trailing party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,336Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold entering the 2026 general election, with trader consensus reflecting the seat's consistent partisan lean and incumbent Ed Case's established position since 2019. The district has delivered Democratic victories by wide margins in recent cycles, supported by voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Case advanced past a primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole on August 8, 2026, while the Republican side features nominee Adriel Lam with minimal statewide profile. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with historical results where no Republican has won the seat since the 1980s. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or significant national political realignment could still affect outcomes, though structural factors limit realistic paths for the trailing party.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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