Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Democrat Ed Case, first elected in 2019 and re-elected by wide margins including 71.8% in 2024, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, primary but remains the clear frontrunner. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, enters a general election in a district centered on Honolulu where structural advantages and consistent voter patterns favor the Democratic candidate. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, with limited near-term catalysts such as polling shifts or candidate withdrawals that could meaningfully alter the outlook before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$27,886 Vol.
$27,886 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$27,886 Vol.
$27,886 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,477 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$13,408 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Democrat Ed Case, first elected in 2019 and re-elected by wide margins including 71.8% in 2024, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, primary but remains the clear frontrunner. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, enters a general election in a district centered on Honolulu where structural advantages and consistent voter patterns favor the Democratic candidate. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, with limited near-term catalysts such as polling shifts or candidate withdrawals that could meaningfully alter the outlook before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$27,886Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Democrat Ed Case, first elected in 2019 and re-elected by wide margins including 71.8% in 2024, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, primary but remains the clear frontrunner. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, enters a general election in a district centered on Honolulu where structural advantages and consistent voter patterns favor the Democratic candidate. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, with limited near-term catalysts such as polling shifts or candidate withdrawals that could meaningfully alter the outlook before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,886Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13 and has not elected a Republican since the 1980s. Incumbent Democrat Ed Case, first elected in 2019 and re-elected by wide margins including 71.8% in 2024, faces primary challengers ahead of the August 8, 2026, primary but remains the clear frontrunner. The Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, enters a general election in a district centered on Honolulu where structural advantages and consistent voter patterns favor the Democratic candidate. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, with limited near-term catalysts such as polling shifts or candidate withdrawals that could meaningfully alter the outlook before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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