Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
HI-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$27,886 Vol.
$27,886 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$27,886 Vol.
$27,886 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,477 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$13,408 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$27,886Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,886Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes