Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s long tenure and the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Seattle suburbs anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The August 4 top-two primary reinforced this positioning, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s voting patterns. While a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment could theoretically alter the trajectory, historical base rates and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$31,145 Vol.
$31,145 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$31,145 Vol.
$31,145 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$11,539 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$19,606 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s long tenure and the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Seattle suburbs anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The August 4 top-two primary reinforced this positioning, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s voting patterns. While a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment could theoretically alter the trajectory, historical base rates and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$31,145Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s long tenure and the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Seattle suburbs anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The August 4 top-two primary reinforced this positioning, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s voting patterns. While a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment could theoretically alter the trajectory, historical base rates and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,145Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s long tenure and the district’s consistent Democratic lean in the Seattle suburbs anchor trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The August 4 top-two primary reinforced this positioning, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler. Cook Political Report maintains a Solid Democratic rating, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s voting patterns. While a major scandal, health development, or national political realignment could theoretically alter the trajectory, historical base rates and the absence of competitive polling indicate few near-term catalysts capable of shifting the implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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