South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de SD-AL
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de SD-AL
$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
5%
$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$9,474 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$7,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$16,931Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,931Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large House district has long favored Republicans, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination on June 2 with roughly 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning the former attorney general as the clear general-election frontrunner against Democratic nominee Nikki Gronli. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability because the state’s voter base, combined with Jackley’s statewide name recognition, creates a steep path for any Democratic challenger. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen national political realignment, a major candidate-specific scandal, or unusually depressed Republican turnout before the November 3 contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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