Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on July 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 3?
35°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$122,347 Vol.
$122,347 Vol.
3 jul 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$122,347 Vol.
$122,347 Vol.
3 jul 2026
30°C or below
$10,078 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,360 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,265 Vol.
No
33°C
$11,212 Vol.
No
34°C
$12,670 Vol.
No
35°C
$14,824 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$17,636 Vol.
No
37°C
$12,010 Vol.
No
38°C
$12,765 Vol.
No
39°C
$8,074 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$13,452 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$122,347Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$122,347Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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