Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly equal implied probabilities to 31–33°C as the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on April 19, reflecting latest AccuWeather and ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 32°C amid a warming trend from today's observed highs around 26–29°C. Key differentiators include the extent of afternoon thunderstorm activity, which could cap temperatures at 31°C via increased cloud cover and precipitation, versus more persistent sun under partly cloudy skies pushing toward 33°C, enhanced by high humidity (RealFeel® nearing 37°C) and urban heat island effects. Model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight this uncertainty in convective timing; updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected April 18 morning. Historical April averages hover at 26–28°C, underscoring the atypical warmth from subtropical ridging.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 19?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 19?
33°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C 21%
34°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 abr 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
10%
30°C
13%
31°C
21%
32°C
21%
33°C
27%
34°C
15%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C 21%
34°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 abr 2026
27°C or below
$274 Vol.
2%
28°C
$85 Vol.
6%
29°C
$132 Vol.
10%
30°C
$8 Vol.
13%
31°C
$50 Vol.
21%
32°C
$8 Vol.
21%
33°C
$42 Vol.
27%
34°C
$75 Vol.
15%
35°C
$206 Vol.
2%
36°C
$504 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$245 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly equal implied probabilities to 31–33°C as the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on April 19, reflecting latest AccuWeather and ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 32°C amid a warming trend from today's observed highs around 26–29°C. Key differentiators include the extent of afternoon thunderstorm activity, which could cap temperatures at 31°C via increased cloud cover and precipitation, versus more persistent sun under partly cloudy skies pushing toward 33°C, enhanced by high humidity (RealFeel® nearing 37°C) and urban heat island effects. Model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight this uncertainty in convective timing; updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected April 18 morning. Historical April averages hover at 26–28°C, underscoring the atypical warmth from subtropical ridging.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volumen
$1,629Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly equal implied probabilities to 31–33°C as the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on April 19, reflecting latest AccuWeather and ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 32°C amid a warming trend from today's observed highs around 26–29°C. Key differentiators include the extent of afternoon thunderstorm activity, which could cap temperatures at 31°C via increased cloud cover and precipitation, versus more persistent sun under partly cloudy skies pushing toward 33°C, enhanced by high humidity (RealFeel® nearing 37°C) and urban heat island effects. Model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight this uncertainty in convective timing; updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected April 18 morning. Historical April averages hover at 26–28°C, underscoring the atypical warmth from subtropical ridging.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,629Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly equal implied probabilities to 31–33°C as the highest temperature at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on April 19, reflecting latest AccuWeather and ensemble forecasts projecting peaks near 32°C amid a warming trend from today's observed highs around 26–29°C. Key differentiators include the extent of afternoon thunderstorm activity, which could cap temperatures at 31°C via increased cloud cover and precipitation, versus more persistent sun under partly cloudy skies pushing toward 33°C, enhanced by high humidity (RealFeel® nearing 37°C) and urban heat island effects. Model spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs highlight this uncertainty in convective timing; updated forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration expected April 18 morning. Historical April averages hover at 26–28°C, underscoring the atypical warmth from subtropical ridging.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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