A strengthening subtropical ridge and heat dome over Texas is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 94–95 °F high (38 %) over the 92–93 °F bin (29 %) for Houston on July 1. Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the most likely maximum near or slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 93 °F, with partly to mostly sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong solar heating. Recent model runs show little cooling from sea-breeze or convective activity, keeping the upper end of the 90–96 °F July envelope in play. Traders are pricing the modest warm-side bias against climatology while noting that any late adjustment in steering flow or moisture could still shift the outcome within the tightly bunched central bins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Houston el 1 de julio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Houston el 1 de julio?
94-95°F 100.0%
83°F o menos <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$59,673 Vol.
$59,673 Vol.
1 jul 2026
83°F o menos
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
Sí
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102°F o más
No
94-95°F 100.0%
83°F o menos <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$59,673 Vol.
$59,673 Vol.
1 jul 2026
83°F o menos
$3,845 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$2,529 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$4,722 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$2,566 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$5,585 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$6,136 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$19,035 Vol.
Sí
96-97°F
$6,625 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$5,015 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$2,382 Vol.
No
102°F o más
$1,233 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strengthening subtropical ridge and heat dome over Texas is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 94–95 °F high (38 %) over the 92–93 °F bin (29 %) for Houston on July 1. Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the most likely maximum near or slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 93 °F, with partly to mostly sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong solar heating. Recent model runs show little cooling from sea-breeze or convective activity, keeping the upper end of the 90–96 °F July envelope in play. Traders are pricing the modest warm-side bias against climatology while noting that any late adjustment in steering flow or moisture could still shift the outcome within the tightly bunched central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$59,673Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strengthening subtropical ridge and heat dome over Texas is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 94–95 °F high (38 %) over the 92–93 °F bin (29 %) for Houston on July 1. Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the most likely maximum near or slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 93 °F, with partly to mostly sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong solar heating. Recent model runs show little cooling from sea-breeze or convective activity, keeping the upper end of the 90–96 °F July envelope in play. Traders are pricing the modest warm-side bias against climatology while noting that any late adjustment in steering flow or moisture could still shift the outcome within the tightly bunched central bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$59,673Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
A strengthening subtropical ridge and heat dome over Texas is the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 94–95 °F high (38 %) over the 92–93 °F bin (29 %) for Houston on July 1. Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather places the most likely maximum near or slightly above the 1991–2020 normal of 93 °F, with partly to mostly sunny skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover allowing strong solar heating. Recent model runs show little cooling from sea-breeze or convective activity, keeping the upper end of the 90–96 °F July envelope in play. Traders are pricing the modest warm-side bias against climatology while noting that any late adjustment in steering flow or moisture could still shift the outcome within the tightly bunched central bins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes