Recent monsoon advance into Uttar Pradesh, with IMD noting favorable conditions for further northward progress by early July, creates the main uncertainty behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–36 °C. Cloud cover, humidity increases, and scattered rainfall typical of the season’s onset can suppress daytime maxima by several degrees relative to pre-monsoon heat, while breaks in activity allow temperatures to reach or exceed 37 °C. Above-normal temperature outlooks for July combined with below-normal rainfall projections in parts of the region add to the balanced probabilities, as small shifts in the timing or intensity of showers over the next 48 hours could tip the highest reading between adjacent thresholds. Traders are therefore weighting short-range model consensus on steering patterns and convective activity most heavily ahead of the July 5 observation window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on July 5?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 5?
38°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$83,435 Vol.
$83,435 Vol.
5 jul 2026
33°C or below
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$83,435 Vol.
$83,435 Vol.
5 jul 2026
33°C or below
$8,392 Vol.
No
34°C
$5,039 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,607 Vol.
No
36°C
$18,590 Vol.
No
37°C
$18,628 Vol.
No
38°C
$9,002 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$5,018 Vol.
No
40°C
$3,543 Vol.
No
41°C
$2,595 Vol.
No
42°C
$3,224 Vol.
No
43°C or higher
$2,797 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon advance into Uttar Pradesh, with IMD noting favorable conditions for further northward progress by early July, creates the main uncertainty behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–36 °C. Cloud cover, humidity increases, and scattered rainfall typical of the season’s onset can suppress daytime maxima by several degrees relative to pre-monsoon heat, while breaks in activity allow temperatures to reach or exceed 37 °C. Above-normal temperature outlooks for July combined with below-normal rainfall projections in parts of the region add to the balanced probabilities, as small shifts in the timing or intensity of showers over the next 48 hours could tip the highest reading between adjacent thresholds. Traders are therefore weighting short-range model consensus on steering patterns and convective activity most heavily ahead of the July 5 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$83,435Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon advance into Uttar Pradesh, with IMD noting favorable conditions for further northward progress by early July, creates the main uncertainty behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–36 °C. Cloud cover, humidity increases, and scattered rainfall typical of the season’s onset can suppress daytime maxima by several degrees relative to pre-monsoon heat, while breaks in activity allow temperatures to reach or exceed 37 °C. Above-normal temperature outlooks for July combined with below-normal rainfall projections in parts of the region add to the balanced probabilities, as small shifts in the timing or intensity of showers over the next 48 hours could tip the highest reading between adjacent thresholds. Traders are therefore weighting short-range model consensus on steering patterns and convective activity most heavily ahead of the July 5 observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$83,435Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent monsoon advance into Uttar Pradesh, with IMD noting favorable conditions for further northward progress by early July, creates the main uncertainty behind the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 35–36 °C. Cloud cover, humidity increases, and scattered rainfall typical of the season’s onset can suppress daytime maxima by several degrees relative to pre-monsoon heat, while breaks in activity allow temperatures to reach or exceed 37 °C. Above-normal temperature outlooks for July combined with below-normal rainfall projections in parts of the region add to the balanced probabilities, as small shifts in the timing or intensity of showers over the next 48 hours could tip the highest reading between adjacent thresholds. Traders are therefore weighting short-range model consensus on steering patterns and convective activity most heavily ahead of the July 5 observation window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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