Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 17 de julio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 17 de julio?
32°C 100.0%
27°C o menos <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,596 Vol.
$46,596 Vol.
17 jul 2026
27°C o menos
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Sí
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C o más
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C o menos <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$46,596 Vol.
$46,596 Vol.
17 jul 2026
27°C o menos
$2,301 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,081 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,011 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,857 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,546 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,837 Vol.
Sí
33°C
$7,412 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,103 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,079 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,430 Vol.
No
37°C o más
$1,939 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$46,596Fecha de finalización
17 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$46,596Fecha de finalización
17 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes