Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to a primary driver of afternoon convective activity and sea-breeze influences that typically cap highs near 90–92°F, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around the 90–93°F range at over two-thirds combined implied probability. Persistent drought conditions and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have supported recent daily maxima of 91–93°F, yet scattered thunderstorms—forecast with 30–40% coverage—introduce timing uncertainty that can either allow brief clearing for higher readings or deliver earlier cloud cover to suppress peaks. Historical July normals near 91°F with occasional records above 95°F provide context, though current steering patterns and moisture profiles favor the observed trader consensus for moderate rather than extreme outcomes ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.