Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 2?
18°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$270,619 Vol.
$270,619 Vol.
2 may 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$270,619 Vol.
$270,619 Vol.
2 may 2026
11°C or below
$4,548 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,072 Vol.
No
13°C
$6,066 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,970 Vol.
No
15°C
$17,232 Vol.
No
16°C
$49,059 Vol.
No
17°C
$36,839 Vol.
No
18°C
$32,201 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$34,410 Vol.
No
20°C
$31,757 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$51,466 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$270,619Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$270,619Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching exactly 18°C on May 2, backed by official observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) at stations like Jongno, where daytime readings peaked at 18°C amid persistent cloud cover that capped solar heating. This follows May 1's clearer skies yielding near 24°C highs, with forecast models from KMA and global ensembles like ECMWF initially projecting 20–22°C before revising downward on intraday satellite imagery showing thick overcast suppressing convective warming. Early May climatology typically sees highs around 20–22°C, but such cloud-induced variability is common; a realistic challenge would require rare post hoc data revisions from KMA audits, though official tallies from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time confirm resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes