Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 19°C and 20°C at 28.5% each for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 18, mirroring tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models, which cluster daytime highs around 20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge fostering light southerly winds and variable cloudiness. Recent observations at the resolution station—Shanghai Pudong International Airport—confirm 18°C on April 15 and 19°C on April 16, aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 19°C but cooler than some guidance due to persistent overcast skies moderating boundary-layer heating. Key differentiators include model spread on low-level moisture advection and sea-breeze penetration: ECMWF leans cooler toward 19°C with stronger onshore flow, while GFS implies 20-21°C potential via drier air aloft. New 00Z runs and CMA updates expected overnight could refine odds ahead of official hourly data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
19°C 29%
20°C 28%
21°C 15%
18°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
15%
19°C
29%
20°C
28%
21°C
15%
22°C
9%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
19°C 29%
20°C 28%
21°C 15%
18°C 15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
15°C or below
$775 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,124 Vol.
2%
17°C
$584 Vol.
5%
18°C
$430 Vol.
15%
19°C
$126 Vol.
29%
20°C
$134 Vol.
28%
21°C
$596 Vol.
15%
22°C
$853 Vol.
9%
23°C
$188 Vol.
3%
24°C
$167 Vol.
3%
25°C or higher
$151 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 19°C and 20°C at 28.5% each for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 18, mirroring tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models, which cluster daytime highs around 20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge fostering light southerly winds and variable cloudiness. Recent observations at the resolution station—Shanghai Pudong International Airport—confirm 18°C on April 15 and 19°C on April 16, aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 19°C but cooler than some guidance due to persistent overcast skies moderating boundary-layer heating. Key differentiators include model spread on low-level moisture advection and sea-breeze penetration: ECMWF leans cooler toward 19°C with stronger onshore flow, while GFS implies 20-21°C potential via drier air aloft. New 00Z runs and CMA updates expected overnight could refine odds ahead of official hourly data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volumen
$4,986Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 19°C and 20°C at 28.5% each for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 18, mirroring tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models, which cluster daytime highs around 20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge fostering light southerly winds and variable cloudiness. Recent observations at the resolution station—Shanghai Pudong International Airport—confirm 18°C on April 15 and 19°C on April 16, aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 19°C but cooler than some guidance due to persistent overcast skies moderating boundary-layer heating. Key differentiators include model spread on low-level moisture advection and sea-breeze penetration: ECMWF leans cooler toward 19°C with stronger onshore flow, while GFS implies 20-21°C potential via drier air aloft. New 00Z runs and CMA updates expected overnight could refine odds ahead of official hourly data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,986Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 19°C and 20°C at 28.5% each for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 18, mirroring tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models, which cluster daytime highs around 20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge fostering light southerly winds and variable cloudiness. Recent observations at the resolution station—Shanghai Pudong International Airport—confirm 18°C on April 15 and 19°C on April 16, aligning with mid-April climatological norms of 19°C but cooler than some guidance due to persistent overcast skies moderating boundary-layer heating. Key differentiators include model spread on low-level moisture advection and sea-breeze penetration: ECMWF leans cooler toward 19°C with stronger onshore flow, while GFS implies 20-21°C potential via drier air aloft. New 00Z runs and CMA updates expected overnight could refine odds ahead of official hourly data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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