Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C due to converging but divergent model outputs from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS. Current southerly winds are advecting warm, humid air (dew points near 24°C), supporting highs near 30°C under partly cloudy skies, yet potential afternoon convective showers and variable cloud cover—forecast at 60–70%—could suppress peak solar insolation, differentiating outcomes by 1–2°C. April climatology shows typical highs of 26–28°C, but recent observations of today's 29°C maximum have nudged expectations upward. Updated model runs expected this evening may sharpen the picture ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 18?
29°C 26%
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
28°C 14%
NUEVO
$11,950 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,950 Vol.
18 abr 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
14%
29°C
26%
30°C
26%
31°C
26%
32°C
10%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 26%
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
28°C 14%
NUEVO
$11,950 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,950 Vol.
18 abr 2026
23°C or below
$857 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,073 Vol.
1%
26°C
$937 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,350 Vol.
3%
28°C
$616 Vol.
14%
29°C
$401 Vol.
26%
30°C
$581 Vol.
26%
31°C
$1,061 Vol.
26%
32°C
$1,314 Vol.
10%
33°C or higher
$1,369 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C due to converging but divergent model outputs from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS. Current southerly winds are advecting warm, humid air (dew points near 24°C), supporting highs near 30°C under partly cloudy skies, yet potential afternoon convective showers and variable cloud cover—forecast at 60–70%—could suppress peak solar insolation, differentiating outcomes by 1–2°C. April climatology shows typical highs of 26–28°C, but recent observations of today's 29°C maximum have nudged expectations upward. Updated model runs expected this evening may sharpen the picture ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volumen
$11,950Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C due to converging but divergent model outputs from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS. Current southerly winds are advecting warm, humid air (dew points near 24°C), supporting highs near 30°C under partly cloudy skies, yet potential afternoon convective showers and variable cloud cover—forecast at 60–70%—could suppress peak solar insolation, differentiating outcomes by 1–2°C. April climatology shows typical highs of 26–28°C, but recent observations of today's 29°C maximum have nudged expectations upward. Updated model runs expected this evening may sharpen the picture ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$11,950Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:27 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C due to converging but divergent model outputs from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles such as ECMWF and GFS. Current southerly winds are advecting warm, humid air (dew points near 24°C), supporting highs near 30°C under partly cloudy skies, yet potential afternoon convective showers and variable cloud cover—forecast at 60–70%—could suppress peak solar insolation, differentiating outcomes by 1–2°C. April climatology shows typical highs of 26–28°C, but recent observations of today's 29°C maximum have nudged expectations upward. Updated model runs expected this evening may sharpen the picture ahead of resolution based on official Shenzhen station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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