Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
24°C or higher 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$86,854 Vol.
$86,854 Vol.
7 may 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
Yes
24°C or higher 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$86,854 Vol.
$86,854 Vol.
7 may 2026
14°C or below
$2,750 Vol.
No
15°C
$4,640 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,080 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,292 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,638 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,194 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,300 Vol.
No
21°C
$16,024 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,753 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,823 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$14,362 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volumen
$86,854Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$86,854Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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