Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with 17°C leading at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 18°C (26%) and 19°C (24%), as ECMWF and GFS ensembles cluster peaks around 17-19°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent observations through April 17 show daytime highs of 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies, consistent with above-climatological norms for mid-April (typical 14-16°C highs per IMGW historical data). Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloudiness and southerly wind speeds, potentially varying peaks by 1-2°C; stronger insolation favors 19°C, while increased mixing caps at 17°C. Updated 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
17°C 30%
18°C 26%
19°C 24%
16°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 abr 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
11%
17°C
30%
18°C
26%
19°C
24%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
3%
17°C 30%
18°C 26%
19°C 24%
16°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 abr 2026
11°C or below
$375 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$272 Vol.
1%
13°C
$241 Vol.
1%
14°C
$251 Vol.
3%
15°C
$158 Vol.
6%
16°C
$56 Vol.
11%
17°C
$16 Vol.
30%
18°C
$9 Vol.
26%
19°C
$48 Vol.
24%
20°C
$128 Vol.
9%
21°C or higher
$28 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with 17°C leading at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 18°C (26%) and 19°C (24%), as ECMWF and GFS ensembles cluster peaks around 17-19°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent observations through April 17 show daytime highs of 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies, consistent with above-climatological norms for mid-April (typical 14-16°C highs per IMGW historical data). Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloudiness and southerly wind speeds, potentially varying peaks by 1-2°C; stronger insolation favors 19°C, while increased mixing caps at 17°C. Updated 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volumen
$1,583Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with 17°C leading at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 18°C (26%) and 19°C (24%), as ECMWF and GFS ensembles cluster peaks around 17-19°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent observations through April 17 show daytime highs of 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies, consistent with above-climatological norms for mid-April (typical 14-16°C highs per IMGW historical data). Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloudiness and southerly wind speeds, potentially varying peaks by 1-2°C; stronger insolation favors 19°C, while increased mixing caps at 17°C. Updated 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,583Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range weather models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 19, with 17°C leading at 31% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 18°C (26%) and 19°C (24%), as ECMWF and GFS ensembles cluster peaks around 17-19°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent observations through April 17 show daytime highs of 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies, consistent with above-climatological norms for mid-April (typical 14-16°C highs per IMGW historical data). Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloudiness and southerly wind speeds, potentially varying peaks by 1-2°C; stronger insolation favors 19°C, while increased mixing caps at 17°C. Updated 00Z/12Z runs from ECMWF tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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