Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 19°C high temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 10, 2026, driven by real-time MetService observations showing peak readings of 19°C during midday under partly cloudy skies and lingering effects of strong northerlies that advected warmer air southward. MetService's latest afternoon forecast confirms this positioning with an 18–19°C range for the Wellington region, aligning with model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction outputs that factored in post-shower clearing and reduced cloud cover. This exceeds May climatological averages of 15°C due to the frontal passage's warm sector. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 20°C before evening southerlies and showers dominate, though official hourly data through 4 p.m. already locks in the maximum. Final airport readings expected by midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on May 10?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 10?
19°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$209,322 Vol.
$209,322 Vol.
10 may 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$209,322 Vol.
$209,322 Vol.
10 may 2026
10°C or below
$4,622 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,397 Vol.
No
12°C
$6,464 Vol.
No
13°C
$3,781 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,601 Vol.
No
15°C
$6,435 Vol.
No
16°C
$22,117 Vol.
No
17°C
$26,277 Vol.
No
18°C
$81,840 Vol.
No
19°C
$20,680 Vol.
Yes
20°C or higher
$29,107 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 19°C high temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 10, 2026, driven by real-time MetService observations showing peak readings of 19°C during midday under partly cloudy skies and lingering effects of strong northerlies that advected warmer air southward. MetService's latest afternoon forecast confirms this positioning with an 18–19°C range for the Wellington region, aligning with model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction outputs that factored in post-shower clearing and reduced cloud cover. This exceeds May climatological averages of 15°C due to the frontal passage's warm sector. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 20°C before evening southerlies and showers dominate, though official hourly data through 4 p.m. already locks in the maximum. Final airport readings expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$209,322Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 19°C high temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 10, 2026, driven by real-time MetService observations showing peak readings of 19°C during midday under partly cloudy skies and lingering effects of strong northerlies that advected warmer air southward. MetService's latest afternoon forecast confirms this positioning with an 18–19°C range for the Wellington region, aligning with model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction outputs that factored in post-shower clearing and reduced cloud cover. This exceeds May climatological averages of 15°C due to the frontal passage's warm sector. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 20°C before evening southerlies and showers dominate, though official hourly data through 4 p.m. already locks in the maximum. Final airport readings expected by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$209,322Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 19°C high temperature at Wellington International Airport on May 10, 2026, driven by real-time MetService observations showing peak readings of 19°C during midday under partly cloudy skies and lingering effects of strong northerlies that advected warmer air southward. MetService's latest afternoon forecast confirms this positioning with an 18–19°C range for the Wellington region, aligning with model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction outputs that factored in post-shower clearing and reduced cloud cover. This exceeds May climatological averages of 15°C due to the frontal passage's warm sector. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 20°C before evening southerlies and showers dominate, though official hourly data through 4 p.m. already locks in the maximum. Final airport readings expected by midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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