President Trump’s January 2026 threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests in Minnesota over federal immigration enforcement actions, including a fatal ICE shooting, remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views. The episode followed weeks of heightened ICE operations and demonstrations that the president described as requiring federal intervention to protect agents. Legislative proposals introduced in mid-2025 (S.2070 and H.R.4076) seek to narrow presidential authority and add congressional approval requirements, highlighting ongoing institutional pushback. No invocation has occurred to date, and traders weigh the low historical frequency of use against potential future triggers tied to border policy, urban unrest, or related executive actions through the end of the year.