¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?
$8,867,123 Vol.
22 de mayo
$3,884,708 Vol.
100%
May 23
$241,733 Vol.
88%
24 de mayo
$1,831,693 Vol.
74%
May 25
$57,087 Vol.
72%
May 26
$16,706 Vol.
70%
27 de mayo
$328,179 Vol.
67%
May 28
$12,884 Vol.
63%
31 de mayo
$319,107 Vol.
56%
7 de junio
$67,122 Vol.
52%
15 de junio
$98,460 Vol.
50%
30 de junio
$63,042 Vol.
43%
31 de julio
$32,751 Vol.
39%
31 de diciembre
$113,111 Vol.
35%
$8,867,123 Vol.
22 de mayo
$3,884,708 Vol.
100%
May 23
$241,733 Vol.
88%
24 de mayo
$1,831,693 Vol.
74%
May 25
$57,087 Vol.
72%
May 26
$16,706 Vol.
70%
27 de mayo
$328,179 Vol.
67%
May 28
$12,884 Vol.
63%
31 de mayo
$319,107 Vol.
56%
7 de junio
$67,122 Vol.
52%
15 de junio
$98,460 Vol.
50%
30 de junio
$63,042 Vol.
43%
31 de julio
$32,751 Vol.
39%
31 de diciembre
$113,111 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan produced a conditional ceasefire on April 8, 2026, that paused direct hostilities after weeks of escalation and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending further proposals. Both sides have exchanged frameworks focused on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional security, yet no comprehensive agreement has emerged. Incidents in the strait and public statements from Tehran and Washington have tested the pause, with Iran insisting on a sustained ceasefire before deeper negotiations and the United States describing the arrangement as fragile. Trader consensus on near-term continuation through specific May dates reflects the absence of renewed large-scale military action and the continued diplomatic channel, while uncertainty over final terms and potential triggers for breakdown keep longer-term probabilities more contested.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan produced a conditional ceasefire on April 8, 2026, that paused direct hostilities after weeks of escalation and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending further proposals. Both sides have exchanged frameworks focused on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional security, yet no comprehensive agreement has emerged. Incidents in the strait and public statements from Tehran and Washington have tested the pause, with Iran insisting on a sustained ceasefire before deeper negotiations and the United States describing the arrangement as fragile. Trader consensus on near-term continuation through specific May dates reflects the absence of renewed large-scale military action and the continued diplomatic channel, while uncertainty over final terms and potential triggers for breakdown keep longer-term probabilities more contested.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan produced a conditional ceasefire on April 8, 2026, that paused direct hostilities after weeks of escalation and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending further proposals. Both sides have exchanged frameworks focused on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional security, yet no comprehensive agreement has emerged. Incidents in the strait and public statements from Tehran and Washington have tested the pause, with Iran insisting on a sustained ceasefire before deeper negotiations and the United States describing the arrangement as fragile. Trader consensus on near-term continuation through specific May dates reflects the absence of renewed large-scale military action and the continued diplomatic channel, while uncertainty over final terms and potential triggers for breakdown keep longer-term probabilities more contested.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan produced a conditional ceasefire on April 8, 2026, that paused direct hostilities after weeks of escalation and was later extended indefinitely by President Trump pending further proposals. Both sides have exchanged frameworks focused on sanctions relief, nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional security, yet no comprehensive agreement has emerged. Incidents in the strait and public statements from Tehran and Washington have tested the pause, with Iran insisting on a sustained ceasefire before deeper negotiations and the United States describing the arrangement as fragile. Trader consensus on near-term continuation through specific May dates reflects the absence of renewed large-scale military action and the continued diplomatic channel, while uncertainty over final terms and potential triggers for breakdown keep longer-term probabilities more contested.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 15 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "22 de mayo" con 100%, seguido de "20 de mayo" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" ha generado $8.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 20, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?", explora los 15 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" es "22 de mayo" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "20 de mayo" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $8.9 million operados en “¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 100¢ para "22 de mayo" en el mercado "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 100% de que "22 de mayo" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 100¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 0¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
Este mercado se resolverá cuando se determine el resultado oficial del evento. Consulta la sección "Reglas" en esta página para los criterios de resolución específicos y el cronograma.
El mercado "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 130 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿El alto el fuego de Irán continúa a través de...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes