Diplomatic channels remain active as Iran conveyed formal conditions via Qatari mediators for ending hostilities, including sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade, while President Trump weighs options such as renewed economic pressure or a negotiated settlement ahead of a planned GCC meeting at the UN General Assembly. Limited strikes and sanctions continue amid the protracted conflict that began with February 2026 U.S.-Israeli operations, but no preparations for a full-scale ground invasion have materialized. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion before 2027, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on de-escalation tools short of regime change by force and the high costs already incurred in munitions and operations. Upcoming diplomatic timelines and regional mediation efforts could further shape near-term developments.