Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including advancing talks toward a memorandum of understanding on nuclear limits and sanctions relief as of early June 2026, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following the February 28 initiation of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and naval operations under Operation Epic Fury, a conditional ceasefire took hold in April, with subsequent limited self-defense strikes focused on missile sites rather than territorial occupation. Ongoing negotiations mediated in part by third parties, combined with the absence of announced ground force deployments or regime-change operations requiring invasion, have kept the implied probability of escalation to full invasion low at 84.5% for "No." Scheduled diplomatic milestones in the coming weeks could further solidify this trajectory if an agreement is reached.