US-Iran negotiations toward a durable ceasefire and sanctions framework, accelerated in recent weeks by Pakistan-mediated talks and direct high-level contacts, represent the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a US ground invasion before 2027. Operations since the February 28, 2026 initiation of strikes have remained limited to airstrikes, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and targeted pressure rather than occupation forces. As of mid-June 2026, President Trump has publicly described a memorandum of understanding as near finalization, with provisions for reopening the strait, uranium stockpile management, and phased sanctions relief, while repeatedly signaling preference for a diplomatic close over escalation. Logistical, escalation, and political costs of any ground campaign continue to favor air and naval leverage plus negotiated limits on Iran's nuclear and regional activities.