The June 14, 2026, announcement of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, set for formal signing on June 19, has anchored trader positioning against a U.S. invasion before 2027. The framework ends active hostilities from the February-initiated conflict, lifts the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, halts operations across fronts including Lebanon, and schedules 60-day follow-on talks on Iran’s nuclear program while providing limited sanctions relief. Recent June exchanges, including Iranian missile and drone strikes on U.S. positions in Kuwait and Bahrain followed by U.S. defensive responses, preceded this diplomatic step rather than signaling ground-force escalation. With a short window to 2027 and active negotiations under way, the implied 87.5% probability on “No” reflects consensus that full-scale invasion remains unlikely absent a sudden breakdown in the current de-escalation track.