Recent diplomatic momentum between the U.S. and Iran, including a June 14-15, 2026, memorandum of understanding framework to extend the April ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end related hostilities in Lebanon, and advance talks on Iran's nuclear program, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. invasion before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli air and missile campaign and subsequent retaliatory exchanges, both sides have prioritized mediated negotiations via Pakistan, with the U.S. canceling planned strikes amid reported progress on sanctions relief and asset releases. The absence of ground operations or occupation plans, combined with a 60-day timeline for further diplomacy, aligns with the 87.5% "No" consensus reflecting de-escalation over escalation.