Recent diplomatic progress, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and pursue further talks on Iran's nuclear program, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following months of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and limited operations amid the 2026 Iran conflict, both sides have prioritized negotiations mediated in part by Pakistan and Oman over escalation to occupation or regime-change missions. Official statements from President Trump and Iranian officials emphasize framework agreements and performance-based steps rather than expanded military campaigns, aligning with the 87.5% implied probability for no invasion. Unresolved issues like uranium enrichment remain, but the shift toward diplomacy and scheduled signing talks in Switzerland reduce near-term risks of full-scale ground operations.