Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have produced a June 2026 framework agreement and memorandum of understanding to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program through phased steps including uranium dilution. President Trump has canceled planned strikes citing progress at the highest Iranian levels, with formal signing slated for mid-June and a 60-day extension of the ceasefire. These diplomatic developments follow months of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile/drone responses that began in February but have not escalated to ground operations. Traders price a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027 as improbable given the current trajectory toward de-escalation, institutional costs of occupation, and focus on sanctions relief and nuclear limits rather than regime change. Late-breaking shifts in talks or renewed escalation remain the main variables that could alter this consensus.