Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning in the June 2026 global temperature anomaly market. This transition from neutral conditions adds a positive forcing to background anthropogenic warming, elevating the likelihood of anomalies exceeding 1.25 °C while model ensembles show substantial spread in peak strength. The near-even split between the >1.29 °C and 1.20–1.24 °C bins reflects uncertainty in the rate of ocean-atmosphere coupling this summer and the precise contribution to monthly global means, consistent with WMO projections of continued near-record warmth through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.25–1.29ºC 38%
1.15–1.19ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
37%
1.20–1.24ºC
39%
1.25–1.29ºC
38%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
1.25–1.29ºC 38%
1.15–1.19ºC 37%
<1.10ºC 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
39%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
>1.29ºC
$270 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning in the June 2026 global temperature anomaly market. This transition from neutral conditions adds a positive forcing to background anthropogenic warming, elevating the likelihood of anomalies exceeding 1.25 °C while model ensembles show substantial spread in peak strength. The near-even split between the >1.29 °C and 1.20–1.24 °C bins reflects uncertainty in the rate of ocean-atmosphere coupling this summer and the precise contribution to monthly global means, consistent with WMO projections of continued near-record warmth through 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$446Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning in the June 2026 global temperature anomaly market. This transition from neutral conditions adds a positive forcing to background anthropogenic warming, elevating the likelihood of anomalies exceeding 1.25 °C while model ensembles show substantial spread in peak strength. The near-even split between the >1.29 °C and 1.20–1.24 °C bins reflects uncertainty in the rate of ocean-atmosphere coupling this summer and the precise contribution to monthly global means, consistent with WMO projections of continued near-record warmth through 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$446Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with an 82% probability of onset during May–July 2026 according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning in the June 2026 global temperature anomaly market. This transition from neutral conditions adds a positive forcing to background anthropogenic warming, elevating the likelihood of anomalies exceeding 1.25 °C while model ensembles show substantial spread in peak strength. The near-even split between the >1.29 °C and 1.20–1.24 °C bins reflects uncertainty in the rate of ocean-atmosphere coupling this summer and the precise contribution to monthly global means, consistent with WMO projections of continued near-record warmth through 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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