Trader consensus clusters around 20–23°C for Shanghai’s June 24 minimum, reflecting ensemble forecasts from regional models that show persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the meiyu front. These conditions limit daytime heating while suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows near the seasonal 21–22°C climatological average. Minor model spread arises from uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. No strong high-pressure ridging or clear-sky advection is indicated in the 48-hour window, supporting the narrow probability distribution and low odds for extremes below 19°C or above 24°C. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles will be the next key inputs before resolution.