Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$19,729 Vol.
$19,729 Vol.
29 abr 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$19,729 Vol.
$19,729 Vol.
29 abr 2026
9°C or below
$1,036 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,574 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,071 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,766 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,577 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,429 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,494 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$1,418 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,031 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,602 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$2,731 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$19,729Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$19,729Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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