Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 4 de julio?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 4 de julio?
21°C 100.0%
16°C o menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$44,470 Vol.
$44,470 Vol.
4 jul 2026
16°C o menos
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Sí
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C o más
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C o menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$44,470 Vol.
$44,470 Vol.
4 jul 2026
16°C o menos
$1,867 Vol.
No
17°C
$842 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,978 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,638 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,474 Vol.
No
21°C
$15,178 Vol.
Sí
22°C
$3,662 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,892 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,524 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,180 Vol.
No
26°C o más
$2,235 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$44,470Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$44,470Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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