No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%. Official USGS records show the strongest earthquakes reached only magnitude 7.7, well below the 8.5 threshold, while National Hurricane Center data confirm no Category 5 U.S. landfalls. No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor strikes have been reported by global monitoring agencies. Historical frequencies place the odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 event in the final months below 15%, and current ENSO and seismic monitoring indicate no rapid shifts likely to alter that outlook. Trader consensus therefore reflects the low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
21% probabilidad
$246,803 Vol.
$246,803 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
21% probabilidad
$246,803 Vol.
$246,803 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%. Official USGS records show the strongest earthquakes reached only magnitude 7.7, well below the 8.5 threshold, while National Hurricane Center data confirm no Category 5 U.S. landfalls. No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor strikes have been reported by global monitoring agencies. Historical frequencies place the odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 event in the final months below 15%, and current ENSO and seismic monitoring indicate no rapid shifts likely to alter that outlook. Trader consensus therefore reflects the low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$246,803Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%. Official USGS records show the strongest earthquakes reached only magnitude 7.7, well below the 8.5 threshold, while National Hurricane Center data confirm no Category 5 U.S. landfalls. No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor strikes have been reported by global monitoring agencies. Historical frequencies place the odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 event in the final months below 15%, and current ENSO and seismic monitoring indicate no rapid shifts likely to alter that outlook. Trader consensus therefore reflects the low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$246,803Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 80%. Official USGS records show the strongest earthquakes reached only magnitude 7.7, well below the 8.5 threshold, while National Hurricane Center data confirm no Category 5 U.S. landfalls. No VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor strikes have been reported by global monitoring agencies. Historical frequencies place the odds of an 8.5+ quake or VEI 6 event in the final months below 15%, and current ENSO and seismic monitoring indicate no rapid shifts likely to alter that outlook. Trader consensus therefore reflects the low near-term probability of crossing any resolution threshold before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes