**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, combined with the year’s advanced stage and continuous NEO monitoring.** NASA and ESA surveys, including close-approach lists updated through late August, list only safe flybys at several lunar distances or greater, with no objects large enough to deliver 10 kt+ yields on collision courses. Historical patterns show major strikes are infrequent, and the few small predicted impacts this year involved meter-scale bodies dissipating well below the threshold. With four months left and no emerging threats from Sentry or similar systems, the market-implied odds align with the low baseline risk and lack of credible catalysts that could alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
11% probabilidad
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
11% probabilidad
$200,454 Vol.
$200,454 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, combined with the year’s advanced stage and continuous NEO monitoring.** NASA and ESA surveys, including close-approach lists updated through late August, list only safe flybys at several lunar distances or greater, with no objects large enough to deliver 10 kt+ yields on collision courses. Historical patterns show major strikes are infrequent, and the few small predicted impacts this year involved meter-scale bodies dissipating well below the threshold. With four months left and no emerging threats from Sentry or similar systems, the market-implied odds align with the low baseline risk and lack of credible catalysts that could alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$200,454Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, combined with the year’s advanced stage and continuous NEO monitoring.** NASA and ESA surveys, including close-approach lists updated through late August, list only safe flybys at several lunar distances or greater, with no objects large enough to deliver 10 kt+ yields on collision courses. Historical patterns show major strikes are infrequent, and the few small predicted impacts this year involved meter-scale bodies dissipating well below the threshold. With four months left and no emerging threats from Sentry or similar systems, the market-implied odds align with the low baseline risk and lack of credible catalysts that could alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$200,454Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 89.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, combined with the year’s advanced stage and continuous NEO monitoring.** NASA and ESA surveys, including close-approach lists updated through late August, list only safe flybys at several lunar distances or greater, with no objects large enough to deliver 10 kt+ yields on collision courses. Historical patterns show major strikes are infrequent, and the few small predicted impacts this year involved meter-scale bodies dissipating well below the threshold. With four months left and no emerging threats from Sentry or similar systems, the market-implied odds align with the low baseline risk and lack of credible catalysts that could alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes