Trader consensus around one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically fewer than one per year on average—and limited confirmed large-scale activity so far this year. Official monitoring through mid-September shows mostly lower-intensity or continuing eruptions, such as those at Semeru and Manam with prior VEI 4 maxima, alongside recent explosive phases at Anak Krakatau producing plumes reaching 15 km. Submarine activity like the Titan Ridge event may equate to borderline VEI 4 if subaerial, but underwater settings complicate classification. Agencies including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and PVMBG report no surge in new high-magnitude events, with model consensus and seismic data indicating typical variability rather than escalation. Remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification or new unrest, though thresholds like sustained 10+ km plumes or significant tephra volumes would be required for additional market-moving confirmations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 43%
1 41%
3 7.0%
2 3.6%
$1,164,274 Vol.
$1,164,274 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
42%
1
51%
2
4%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 43%
1 41%
3 7.0%
2 3.6%
$1,164,274 Vol.
$1,164,274 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$499,859 Vol.
42%
1
$274,802 Vol.
51%
2
$45,997 Vol.
4%
3
$32,103 Vol.
7%
4
$35,623 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,891 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus around one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically fewer than one per year on average—and limited confirmed large-scale activity so far this year. Official monitoring through mid-September shows mostly lower-intensity or continuing eruptions, such as those at Semeru and Manam with prior VEI 4 maxima, alongside recent explosive phases at Anak Krakatau producing plumes reaching 15 km. Submarine activity like the Titan Ridge event may equate to borderline VEI 4 if subaerial, but underwater settings complicate classification. Agencies including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and PVMBG report no surge in new high-magnitude events, with model consensus and seismic data indicating typical variability rather than escalation. Remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification or new unrest, though thresholds like sustained 10+ km plumes or significant tephra volumes would be required for additional market-moving confirmations.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,164,274Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus around one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically fewer than one per year on average—and limited confirmed large-scale activity so far this year. Official monitoring through mid-September shows mostly lower-intensity or continuing eruptions, such as those at Semeru and Manam with prior VEI 4 maxima, alongside recent explosive phases at Anak Krakatau producing plumes reaching 15 km. Submarine activity like the Titan Ridge event may equate to borderline VEI 4 if subaerial, but underwater settings complicate classification. Agencies including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and PVMBG report no surge in new high-magnitude events, with model consensus and seismic data indicating typical variability rather than escalation. Remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification or new unrest, though thresholds like sustained 10+ km plumes or significant tephra volumes would be required for additional market-moving confirmations.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,164,274Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus around one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 reflects the low historical frequency of such events—typically fewer than one per year on average—and limited confirmed large-scale activity so far this year. Official monitoring through mid-September shows mostly lower-intensity or continuing eruptions, such as those at Semeru and Manam with prior VEI 4 maxima, alongside recent explosive phases at Anak Krakatau producing plumes reaching 15 km. Submarine activity like the Titan Ridge event may equate to borderline VEI 4 if subaerial, but underwater settings complicate classification. Agencies including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and PVMBG report no surge in new high-magnitude events, with model consensus and seismic data indicating typical variability rather than escalation. Remaining months introduce uncertainty from potential intensification or new unrest, though thresholds like sustained 10+ km plumes or significant tephra volumes would be required for additional market-moving confirmations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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