Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent phase since its last eruption in 1944, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting consistently low-level background activity through September 2026. Seismic events stay minor and infrequent, mostly below magnitude 2 with no swarms or long-period signals, while GNSS networks detect no magmatic ground deformation or inflation. Fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions (SO2, CO2) show no significant geochemical shifts indicative of magma ascent. These stable multiparametric observations align with the volcano’s historical recurrence intervals of centuries for VEI 1+ events, supporting the market’s 95.8% implied probability of “No.” A sudden escalation in seismicity or uplift could theoretically signal renewed unrest before year-end, though current data show no such precursors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent phase since its last eruption in 1944, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting consistently low-level background activity through September 2026. Seismic events stay minor and infrequent, mostly below magnitude 2 with no swarms or long-period signals, while GNSS networks detect no magmatic ground deformation or inflation. Fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions (SO2, CO2) show no significant geochemical shifts indicative of magma ascent. These stable multiparametric observations align with the volcano’s historical recurrence intervals of centuries for VEI 1+ events, supporting the market’s 95.8% implied probability of “No.” A sudden escalation in seismicity or uplift could theoretically signal renewed unrest before year-end, though current data show no such precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$660Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent phase since its last eruption in 1944, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting consistently low-level background activity through September 2026. Seismic events stay minor and infrequent, mostly below magnitude 2 with no swarms or long-period signals, while GNSS networks detect no magmatic ground deformation or inflation. Fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions (SO2, CO2) show no significant geochemical shifts indicative of magma ascent. These stable multiparametric observations align with the volcano’s historical recurrence intervals of centuries for VEI 1+ events, supporting the market’s 95.8% implied probability of “No.” A sudden escalation in seismicity or uplift could theoretically signal renewed unrest before year-end, though current data show no such precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$660Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent phase since its last eruption in 1944, with INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reporting consistently low-level background activity through September 2026. Seismic events stay minor and infrequent, mostly below magnitude 2 with no swarms or long-period signals, while GNSS networks detect no magmatic ground deformation or inflation. Fumarolic temperatures and gas emissions (SO2, CO2) show no significant geochemical shifts indicative of magma ascent. These stable multiparametric observations align with the volcano’s historical recurrence intervals of centuries for VEI 1+ events, supporting the market’s 95.8% implied probability of “No.” A sudden escalation in seismicity or uplift could theoretically signal renewed unrest before year-end, though current data show no such precursors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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