Current monitoring from agencies including the USGS and NOAA shows seismic and weather activity through mid-2026 remaining within typical ranges, with no confirmed events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude quakes or intense tropical systems. Official forecasts for the second half of the year project average conditions rather than the extreme atmospheric or tectonic setups required to shift outcomes, reinforcing the 75% market-implied probability for “No.” While natural variability means outliers remain possible, the absence of early indicators or model consensus for qualifying events underpins trader positioning at this stage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$221,575 Vol.
$221,575 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$221,575 Vol.
$221,575 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current monitoring from agencies including the USGS and NOAA shows seismic and weather activity through mid-2026 remaining within typical ranges, with no confirmed events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude quakes or intense tropical systems. Official forecasts for the second half of the year project average conditions rather than the extreme atmospheric or tectonic setups required to shift outcomes, reinforcing the 75% market-implied probability for “No.” While natural variability means outliers remain possible, the absence of early indicators or model consensus for qualifying events underpins trader positioning at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$221,575Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current monitoring from agencies including the USGS and NOAA shows seismic and weather activity through mid-2026 remaining within typical ranges, with no confirmed events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude quakes or intense tropical systems. Official forecasts for the second half of the year project average conditions rather than the extreme atmospheric or tectonic setups required to shift outcomes, reinforcing the 75% market-implied probability for “No.” While natural variability means outliers remain possible, the absence of early indicators or model consensus for qualifying events underpins trader positioning at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$221,575Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current monitoring from agencies including the USGS and NOAA shows seismic and weather activity through mid-2026 remaining within typical ranges, with no confirmed events meeting likely resolution thresholds such as high-magnitude quakes or intense tropical systems. Official forecasts for the second half of the year project average conditions rather than the extreme atmospheric or tectonic setups required to shift outcomes, reinforcing the 75% market-implied probability for “No.” While natural variability means outliers remain possible, the absence of early indicators or model consensus for qualifying events underpins trader positioning at this stage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes