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¿Desastre natural en 2026?

icon for ¿Desastre natural en 2026?

¿Desastre natural en 2026?

26% probabilidad
Polymarket

$221,615 Vol.

26% probabilidad
Polymarket

$221,615 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf The low implied probability for a major natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of qualifying extreme events—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption reaching VEI 6 or higher, or significant meteor strike—combined with stable monitoring data through mid-2026 showing no elevated seismic, volcanic, or near-Earth object activity. Official USGS and global volcano observatory reports indicate typical background levels of smaller quakes and eruptions, while NOAA and NASA tracking confirm no imminent large impacts. Traders weigh these baselines against historical frequencies, where such outliers remain infrequent even amid ongoing climate-driven trends in lesser events like floods and wildfires. New seismic or satellite updates over the next several months could shift sentiment if anomalies emerge.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$221,615
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf The low implied probability for a major natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of qualifying extreme events—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption reaching VEI 6 or higher, or significant meteor strike—combined with stable monitoring data through mid-2026 showing no elevated seismic, volcanic, or near-Earth object activity. Official USGS and global volcano observatory reports indicate typical background levels of smaller quakes and eruptions, while NOAA and NASA tracking confirm no imminent large impacts. Traders weigh these baselines against historical frequencies, where such outliers remain infrequent even amid ongoing climate-driven trends in lesser events like floods and wildfires. New seismic or satellite updates over the next several months could shift sentiment if anomalies emerge.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$221,615
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Desastre natural en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Desastre natural en 2026?" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 26¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Desastre natural en 2026?" ha generado $221.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 31, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Desastre natural en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Desastre natural en 2026?" es "¿Desastre natural en 2026?" con 26%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Desastre natural en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.