Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the lack of active large-scale threats through mid-June 2026, with official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and NHC showing no developing systems likely to produce qualifying events by year-end. Stable ENSO-neutral conditions and subdued tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have limited intensification potential, while seismic and wildfire patterns align with historical baselines rather than extremes. Recent model runs indicate continued low probability of category 4+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds in the second half of the year. Upcoming seasonal outlooks from NOAA in July will provide the next key data point for any shift in implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$222,953 Vol.
$222,953 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$222,953 Vol.
$222,953 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the lack of active large-scale threats through mid-June 2026, with official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and NHC showing no developing systems likely to produce qualifying events by year-end. Stable ENSO-neutral conditions and subdued tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have limited intensification potential, while seismic and wildfire patterns align with historical baselines rather than extremes. Recent model runs indicate continued low probability of category 4+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds in the second half of the year. Upcoming seasonal outlooks from NOAA in July will provide the next key data point for any shift in implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$222,953Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the lack of active large-scale threats through mid-June 2026, with official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and NHC showing no developing systems likely to produce qualifying events by year-end. Stable ENSO-neutral conditions and subdued tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have limited intensification potential, while seismic and wildfire patterns align with historical baselines rather than extremes. Recent model runs indicate continued low probability of category 4+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds in the second half of the year. Upcoming seasonal outlooks from NOAA in July will provide the next key data point for any shift in implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$222,953Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the lack of active large-scale threats through mid-June 2026, with official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and NHC showing no developing systems likely to produce qualifying events by year-end. Stable ENSO-neutral conditions and subdued tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have limited intensification potential, while seismic and wildfire patterns align with historical baselines rather than extremes. Recent model runs indicate continued low probability of category 4+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes meeting market thresholds in the second half of the year. Upcoming seasonal outlooks from NOAA in July will provide the next key data point for any shift in implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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