SpaceX’s sustained high launch cadence through mid-September 2026, with over 100 Falcon 9 and Heavy missions completed alongside early Starship flights, underpins the 82.3% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches this year. Reusable booster operations, frequent Starlink deployments from both Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, and steady national-security and commercial manifests have maintained roughly one launch every few days. Recent milestones include the 100th Falcon 9 flight in late August and Starship Flight 14 preparations, which could add incremental orbital attempts if technical and regulatory hurdles are cleared. Historical analogs of 2025’s record pace and current manifest density support this range, though model consensus on Starship reliability and any weather or range constraints at Starbase could shift the final tally.