No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026, supporting the 93.8% market-implied odds against a bolide releasing at least 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys continue to track only small, distant approaches such as 2026 JH2 and recent airplane-sized objects, all safely missing Earth by hundreds of thousands of miles. Historical airburst rates and improved detection since the Chelyabinsk event further reinforce the low probability. A realistic challenge would require an undetected 10–20 meter object entering on a collision trajectory before year-end, an outcome rendered unlikely by current observational coverage and orbital dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026, supporting the 93.8% market-implied odds against a bolide releasing at least 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys continue to track only small, distant approaches such as 2026 JH2 and recent airplane-sized objects, all safely missing Earth by hundreds of thousands of miles. Historical airburst rates and improved detection since the Chelyabinsk event further reinforce the low probability. A realistic challenge would require an undetected 10–20 meter object entering on a collision trajectory before year-end, an outcome rendered unlikely by current observational coverage and orbital dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$8,238Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026, supporting the 93.8% market-implied odds against a bolide releasing at least 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys continue to track only small, distant approaches such as 2026 JH2 and recent airplane-sized objects, all safely missing Earth by hundreds of thousands of miles. Historical airburst rates and improved detection since the Chelyabinsk event further reinforce the low probability. A realistic challenge would require an undetected 10–20 meter object entering on a collision trajectory before year-end, an outcome rendered unlikely by current observational coverage and orbital dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$8,238Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026, supporting the 93.8% market-implied odds against a bolide releasing at least 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global surveys continue to track only small, distant approaches such as 2026 JH2 and recent airplane-sized objects, all safely missing Earth by hundreds of thousands of miles. Historical airburst rates and improved detection since the Chelyabinsk event further reinforce the low probability. A realistic challenge would require an undetected 10–20 meter object entering on a collision trajectory before year-end, an outcome rendered unlikely by current observational coverage and orbital dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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