Extensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy in 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. Objects in this size range (roughly 20–30 meters) are detectable well in advance through optical and radar monitoring, and current catalogs show no imminent threats within the year's remaining window. Historical impact frequency for such events remains low, occurring roughly once per century or less, reinforcing trader confidence in the absence of confirmed precursors. Realistic challenges include the small chance of an undetected long-period comet or a very recent fragmentation event evading surveys, though model consensus and ongoing observations make these scenarios unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 100kt en 2026?
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy in 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. Objects in this size range (roughly 20–30 meters) are detectable well in advance through optical and radar monitoring, and current catalogs show no imminent threats within the year's remaining window. Historical impact frequency for such events remains low, occurring roughly once per century or less, reinforcing trader confidence in the absence of confirmed precursors. Realistic challenges include the small chance of an undetected long-period comet or a very recent fragmentation event evading surveys, though model consensus and ongoing observations make these scenarios unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$8,238Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy in 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. Objects in this size range (roughly 20–30 meters) are detectable well in advance through optical and radar monitoring, and current catalogs show no imminent threats within the year's remaining window. Historical impact frequency for such events remains low, occurring roughly once per century or less, reinforcing trader confidence in the absence of confirmed precursors. Realistic challenges include the small chance of an undetected long-period comet or a very recent fragmentation event evading surveys, though model consensus and ongoing observations make these scenarios unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$8,238Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy in 2026, supporting the market's strong "No" consensus at 93.8%. Objects in this size range (roughly 20–30 meters) are detectable well in advance through optical and radar monitoring, and current catalogs show no imminent threats within the year's remaining window. Historical impact frequency for such events remains low, occurring roughly once per century or less, reinforcing trader confidence in the absence of confirmed precursors. Realistic challenges include the small chance of an undetected long-period comet or a very recent fragmentation event evading surveys, though model consensus and ongoing observations make these scenarios unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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