A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJulio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Julio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 84%
1,15–1,19ºC 8%
1,25–1,29 ºC 7%
1,10–1,14ºC 2%
$33,837 Vol.
$33,837 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
8%
1,20–1,24ºC
84%
1,25–1,29 ºC
7%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,20–1,24ºC 84%
1,15–1,19ºC 8%
1,25–1,29 ºC 7%
1,10–1,14ºC 2%
$33,837 Vol.
$33,837 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$6,767 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$2,979 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$3,982 Vol.
8%
1,20–1,24ºC
$10,362 Vol.
84%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$6,926 Vol.
7%
>1,29ºC
$2,821 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$33,837Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$33,837Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s June 2026 advisory with conditions already present and a 63% chance of reaching very strong intensity by winter 2026-27, stands as the dominant near-term driver elevating trader expectations for July 2026 global temperatures. This event follows the 2023-2024 peak and builds on a multi-year warming trend that kept 2025 near 1.19°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. El Niño’s influence on global mean surface temperatures typically strengthens through boreal summer via enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, pushing seasonal anomalies higher while model ensembles from WMO and IRI project widespread above-normal temperatures for June-August 2026. Market-implied odds cluster around 1.15-1.19°C, reflecting this combination of background warming plus El Niño amplification, though uncertainty remains in exact July timing and magnitude given natural variability and model spread.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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