Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent of 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, reflecting NSIDC and OSI SAF observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—while daily values tracked near 2012 levels early in the melt season before slowing. Persistent low ice thickness in the Atlantic sector and a post-2007 baseline of reduced extent support this narrow range, consistent with 2025’s NSIDC minimum near 4.60 million square kilometers and May forecasts projecting around 4.49 million. Recent cooler high-latitude conditions and decelerating melt rates have reinforced the outlook. Late-September weather shifts, such as persistent high-pressure systems enhancing melt or rapid cooling, remain the main variables that could push the final minimum outside this band before refreeze begins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 93.4%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 3.1%
<4 millones km² 1.4%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 1.1%
$79,261 Vol.
$79,261 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<4 millones km²
1%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
1%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
3%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
93%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
1%
4.8-5 millones de km²
1%
5+ millones de km²
<1%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 93.4%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 3.1%
<4 millones km² 1.4%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 1.1%
$79,261 Vol.
$79,261 Vol.
30 sep 2026
<4 millones km²
$33,595 Vol.
1%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$7,498 Vol.
1%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$3,817 Vol.
3%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$4,588 Vol.
93%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$10,293 Vol.
1%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$4,370 Vol.
1%
5+ millones de km²
$15,098 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent of 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, reflecting NSIDC and OSI SAF observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—while daily values tracked near 2012 levels early in the melt season before slowing. Persistent low ice thickness in the Atlantic sector and a post-2007 baseline of reduced extent support this narrow range, consistent with 2025’s NSIDC minimum near 4.60 million square kilometers and May forecasts projecting around 4.49 million. Recent cooler high-latitude conditions and decelerating melt rates have reinforced the outlook. Late-September weather shifts, such as persistent high-pressure systems enhancing melt or rapid cooling, remain the main variables that could push the final minimum outside this band before refreeze begins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$79,261Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent of 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, reflecting NSIDC and OSI SAF observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—while daily values tracked near 2012 levels early in the melt season before slowing. Persistent low ice thickness in the Atlantic sector and a post-2007 baseline of reduced extent support this narrow range, consistent with 2025’s NSIDC minimum near 4.60 million square kilometers and May forecasts projecting around 4.49 million. Recent cooler high-latitude conditions and decelerating melt rates have reinforced the outlook. Late-September weather shifts, such as persistent high-pressure systems enhancing melt or rapid cooling, remain the main variables that could push the final minimum outside this band before refreeze begins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$79,261Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent of 4.4–4.6 million square kilometers, reflecting NSIDC and OSI SAF observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—while daily values tracked near 2012 levels early in the melt season before slowing. Persistent low ice thickness in the Atlantic sector and a post-2007 baseline of reduced extent support this narrow range, consistent with 2025’s NSIDC minimum near 4.60 million square kilometers and May forecasts projecting around 4.49 million. Recent cooler high-latitude conditions and decelerating melt rates have reinforced the outlook. Late-September weather shifts, such as persistent high-pressure systems enhancing melt or rapid cooling, remain the main variables that could push the final minimum outside this band before refreeze begins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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