The USGS states that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate such energy release, with the theoretical maximum limited by Earth's largest subduction zones to around 9.5–9.7. This aligns with the historical record, where the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the peak, and recent activity—such as the 8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025—shows no approach to that threshold. With only months remaining before 2027 and no anomalous seismic signals from global monitoring networks, trader consensus at 98.7% on "No" reflects these physical constraints. An unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or detection of an undocumented mega-fault could theoretically shift odds, though both remain highly improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
1% probabilidad
$816,309 Vol.
$816,309 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
1% probabilidad
$816,309 Vol.
$816,309 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The USGS states that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate such energy release, with the theoretical maximum limited by Earth's largest subduction zones to around 9.5–9.7. This aligns with the historical record, where the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the peak, and recent activity—such as the 8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025—shows no approach to that threshold. With only months remaining before 2027 and no anomalous seismic signals from global monitoring networks, trader consensus at 98.7% on "No" reflects these physical constraints. An unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or detection of an undocumented mega-fault could theoretically shift odds, though both remain highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$816,309Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The USGS states that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate such energy release, with the theoretical maximum limited by Earth's largest subduction zones to around 9.5–9.7. This aligns with the historical record, where the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the peak, and recent activity—such as the 8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025—shows no approach to that threshold. With only months remaining before 2027 and no anomalous seismic signals from global monitoring networks, trader consensus at 98.7% on "No" reflects these physical constraints. An unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or detection of an undocumented mega-fault could theoretically shift odds, though both remain highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$816,309Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The USGS states that magnitude 10 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault is long enough to generate such energy release, with the theoretical maximum limited by Earth's largest subduction zones to around 9.5–9.7. This aligns with the historical record, where the 1960 Chile event at 9.5 remains the peak, and recent activity—such as the 8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025—shows no approach to that threshold. With only months remaining before 2027 and no anomalous seismic signals from global monitoring networks, trader consensus at 98.7% on "No" reflects these physical constraints. An unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or detection of an undocumented mega-fault could theoretically shift odds, though both remain highly improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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