A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Septiembre de 2026, el primero, el segundo o el tercero más caluroso registrado?
¿Septiembre de 2026, el primero, el segundo o el tercero más caluroso registrado?
3º más caluroso 50%
2º más caluroso 49%
El más caluroso 49%
4º o inferior 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
El más caluroso
49%
2º más caluroso
49%
3º más caluroso
50%
4º o inferior
49%
3º más caluroso 50%
2º más caluroso 49%
El más caluroso 49%
4º o inferior 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
El más caluroso
$0 Vol.
49%
2º más caluroso
$0 Vol.
49%
3º más caluroso
$0 Vol.
50%
4º o inferior
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts indicating a very strong or historic peak by fall, represents the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global temperatures. This event, developing from neutral conditions earlier in the year, adds substantial warmth atop the long-term anthropogenic trend, consistent with above-normal temperature probabilities in WMO seasonal outlooks for the August-October period. Recent analogs like the 2015-16 and 1997-98 events show El Niño's lagged influence can push monthly anomalies into record territory, though exact placement among the top three hinges on precise realization relative to 2023-2024 benchmarks, model spread in atmospheric response, and any offsetting factors from other basins. Trader-implied odds near 49% across the leading outcomes reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of September observational data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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