With the year-to-date maximum at 7.8 Mw from the June Mindanao event per USGS records, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below at 67% implied probability, reflecting the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes globally—typically one or two annually amid subduction zone activity. Recent August events, including a 7.4 Mw in Colombia and 6.9 Mw in Sumatra, have not shifted the ceiling, while model consensus on tectonic stress release shows no elevated risk for great earthquakes in the remaining months. Historical patterns indicate that 8.0–8.5 outcomes carry lower but plausible odds around 10–49% if an unexpected megathrust rupture occurs, with 9.0+ remaining under 5% given their multi-century recurrence intervals. USGS monitoring and aftershock data through mid-August continue to anchor sentiment toward a moderate maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La mayor magnitud de terremoto en 2026?
¿La mayor magnitud de terremoto en 2026?
7.9 o menos 67%
8.0 – 8.1 11%
8,2 – 8,3 10%
8,4 – 8,5 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ene 2027
7.9 o menos
67%
8.0 – 8.1
11%
8,2 – 8,3
10%
8,4 – 8,5
8%
8,6 – 8,7
6%
8.8 – 8.9
6%
9.0 o más
4%
7.9 o menos 67%
8.0 – 8.1 11%
8,2 – 8,3 10%
8,4 – 8,5 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ene 2027
7.9 o menos
$97 Vol.
67%
8.0 – 8.1
$40 Vol.
11%
8,2 – 8,3
$55 Vol.
10%
8,4 – 8,5
$40 Vol.
8%
8,6 – 8,7
$60 Vol.
6%
8.8 – 8.9
$40 Vol.
6%
9.0 o más
$27 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the year-to-date maximum at 7.8 Mw from the June Mindanao event per USGS records, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below at 67% implied probability, reflecting the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes globally—typically one or two annually amid subduction zone activity. Recent August events, including a 7.4 Mw in Colombia and 6.9 Mw in Sumatra, have not shifted the ceiling, while model consensus on tectonic stress release shows no elevated risk for great earthquakes in the remaining months. Historical patterns indicate that 8.0–8.5 outcomes carry lower but plausible odds around 10–49% if an unexpected megathrust rupture occurs, with 9.0+ remaining under 5% given their multi-century recurrence intervals. USGS monitoring and aftershock data through mid-August continue to anchor sentiment toward a moderate maximum.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volumen
$357Fecha de finalización
4 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the year-to-date maximum at 7.8 Mw from the June Mindanao event per USGS records, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below at 67% implied probability, reflecting the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes globally—typically one or two annually amid subduction zone activity. Recent August events, including a 7.4 Mw in Colombia and 6.9 Mw in Sumatra, have not shifted the ceiling, while model consensus on tectonic stress release shows no elevated risk for great earthquakes in the remaining months. Historical patterns indicate that 8.0–8.5 outcomes carry lower but plausible odds around 10–49% if an unexpected megathrust rupture occurs, with 9.0+ remaining under 5% given their multi-century recurrence intervals. USGS monitoring and aftershock data through mid-August continue to anchor sentiment toward a moderate maximum.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$357Fecha de finalización
4 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With the year-to-date maximum at 7.8 Mw from the June Mindanao event per USGS records, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below at 67% implied probability, reflecting the statistical rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes globally—typically one or two annually amid subduction zone activity. Recent August events, including a 7.4 Mw in Colombia and 6.9 Mw in Sumatra, have not shifted the ceiling, while model consensus on tectonic stress release shows no elevated risk for great earthquakes in the remaining months. Historical patterns indicate that 8.0–8.5 outcomes carry lower but plausible odds around 10–49% if an unexpected megathrust rupture occurs, with 9.0+ remaining under 5% given their multi-century recurrence intervals. USGS monitoring and aftershock data through mid-August continue to anchor sentiment toward a moderate maximum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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