Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and models projecting further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing regional rainfall. This pattern historically reduces South China Sea monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone frequency or favorable tracks affecting Hong Kong, favoring totals below the HKO 1991-2020 September normal of 321 mm. Early-month observations show scattered showers from northeasterly flow and weak systems, yet the market's heavy weighting toward the <275 mm bin (48.5% implied probability) reflects trader consensus on drier overall conditions. Key variables to watch include any late-September typhoon incursions and updated seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en septiembre?
¿Precipitaciones en Hong Kong en septiembre?
<275mm 43%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 11%
400-450mm 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
<275mm
43%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
7%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
6%
375-400mm
6%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
11%
500-550mm
8%
550mm+
5%
<275mm 43%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 11%
400-450mm 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
<275mm
$1,902 Vol.
43%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
7%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
6%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
6%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
7%
450-500mm
$128 Vol.
11%
500-550mm
$128 Vol.
8%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and models projecting further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing regional rainfall. This pattern historically reduces South China Sea monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone frequency or favorable tracks affecting Hong Kong, favoring totals below the HKO 1991-2020 September normal of 321 mm. Early-month observations show scattered showers from northeasterly flow and weak systems, yet the market's heavy weighting toward the <275 mm bin (48.5% implied probability) reflects trader consensus on drier overall conditions. Key variables to watch include any late-September typhoon incursions and updated seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volumen
$3,090Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and models projecting further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing regional rainfall. This pattern historically reduces South China Sea monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone frequency or favorable tracks affecting Hong Kong, favoring totals below the HKO 1991-2020 September normal of 321 mm. Early-month observations show scattered showers from northeasterly flow and weak systems, yet the market's heavy weighting toward the <275 mm bin (48.5% implied probability) reflects trader consensus on drier overall conditions. Key variables to watch include any late-September typhoon incursions and updated seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,090Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and models projecting further intensification through fall 2026, represent the dominant driver suppressing regional rainfall. This pattern historically reduces South China Sea monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone frequency or favorable tracks affecting Hong Kong, favoring totals below the HKO 1991-2020 September normal of 321 mm. Early-month observations show scattered showers from northeasterly flow and weak systems, yet the market's heavy weighting toward the <275 mm bin (48.5% implied probability) reflects trader consensus on drier overall conditions. Key variables to watch include any late-September typhoon incursions and updated seasonal outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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