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¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

icon for ¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?

$537,143 Vol.

30 jul 2026
Polymarket

$537,143 Vol.

Polymarket

Jacob Tsimerman

$54,904 Vol.

87%

Hong Wang

$83,265 Vol.

86%

John Pardon

$85,626 Vol.

66%

Yu Deng

$119,846 Vol.

64%

Vesselin Dimitrov

$0 Vol.

53%

Sam Raskin

$2,597 Vol.

24%

Jack Thorne

$101,287 Vol.

26%

Alexander Efimov

$577 Vol.

23%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$84,584 Vol.

26%

Aleksandr Logunov

$262 Vol.

31%

Will Sawin

$4,196 Vol.

18%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal thanks to her resolution of the Kakeya conjecture, a breakthrough that has energized the math community and fueled trader consensus around her nomination. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne follow closely on the strength of major advances in number theory and arithmetic geometry, while names like John Pardon and Yu Deng round out the top tier based on consistent high-impact work. With the International Congress of Mathematicians set for late July in Philadelphia—where up to four medals will be announced—the race hinges on the IMU committee’s final deliberations, historical patterns favoring transformative results in analysis and geometry, and any late momentum from recent papers or prizes. Traders should watch for subtle shifts in academic chatter as the ceremony nears.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$537,143
Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Hong Wang has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal thanks to her resolution of the Kakeya conjecture, a breakthrough that has energized the math community and fueled trader consensus around her nomination. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne follow closely on the strength of major advances in number theory and arithmetic geometry, while names like John Pardon and Yu Deng round out the top tier based on consistent high-impact work. With the International Congress of Mathematicians set for late July in Philadelphia—where up to four medals will be announced—the race hinges on the IMU committee’s final deliberations, historical patterns favoring transformative results in analysis and geometry, and any late momentum from recent papers or prizes. Traders should watch for subtle shifts in academic chatter as the ceremony nears.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$537,143
Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jacob Tsimerman" con 87%, seguido de "Hong Wang" con 86%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 87¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" ha generado $537.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" es "Jacob Tsimerman" con 87%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Hong Wang" con 86%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ganará la Medalla Fields 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.