Traders assign an 83% probability to no new pandemic before 2028 primarily because no pathogen currently exhibits sustained human-to-human transmission capable of rapid global spread, despite ongoing zoonotic spillovers. Enhanced post-COVID surveillance by agencies like the WHO and CDC, combined with improved detection and response capacities, has lowered near-term risk. Recent H5N1 avian influenza detections in Australian mammals and seabirds through September 2026 remain confined to animal populations without efficient human adaptation, while mpox outbreaks show moderate, regionally contained transmission with declining trends in key areas. Broader assessments indicate roughly a 2–4% annual probability of a COVID-scale event, consistent with historical patterns where pandemics arise infrequently. Upcoming UN discussions on preparedness may further reinforce monitoring but do not signal imminent threats.