North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8, confirmed by Seoul's military amid Pyongyang's threatening statements toward South Korea, have driven trader consensus to 99.3% implied probability for a missile test or launch by April 30. This follows a flurry of March tests, including strategic cruise missiles fired from the new Choe Hyon destroyer under Kim Jong Un's supervision and barrages of around 10 ballistic missiles during U.S.-South Korea drills. Pyongyang's consistent cadence of weapons demonstrations—often tied to regional exercises or anniversaries—signals near-certainty, though official verification of recent firings or an improbable diplomatic de-escalation could still influence resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Prueba/lanzamiento de misiles de Corea del Norte para el 30 de abril de 2026?
¿Prueba/lanzamiento de misiles de Corea del Norte para el 30 de abril de 2026?
Sí
NUEVO
$36,602 Vol.
NUEVO
$36,602 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
NUEVO
$36,602 Vol.
NUEVO
$36,602 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8, confirmed by Seoul's military amid Pyongyang's threatening statements toward South Korea, have driven trader consensus to 99.3% implied probability for a missile test or launch by April 30. This follows a flurry of March tests, including strategic cruise missiles fired from the new Choe Hyon destroyer under Kim Jong Un's supervision and barrages of around 10 ballistic missiles during U.S.-South Korea drills. Pyongyang's consistent cadence of weapons demonstrations—often tied to regional exercises or anniversaries—signals near-certainty, though official verification of recent firings or an improbable diplomatic de-escalation could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Apr 7, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$36,602Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8, confirmed by Seoul's military amid Pyongyang's threatening statements toward South Korea, have driven trader consensus to 99.3% implied probability for a missile test or launch by April 30. This follows a flurry of March tests, including strategic cruise missiles fired from the new Choe Hyon destroyer under Kim Jong Un's supervision and barrages of around 10 ballistic missiles during U.S.-South Korea drills. Pyongyang's consistent cadence of weapons demonstrations—often tied to regional exercises or anniversaries—signals near-certainty, though official verification of recent firings or an improbable diplomatic de-escalation could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$36,602Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8, confirmed by Seoul's military amid Pyongyang's threatening statements toward South Korea, have driven trader consensus to 99.3% implied probability for a missile test or launch by April 30. This follows a flurry of March tests, including strategic cruise missiles fired from the new Choe Hyon destroyer under Kim Jong Un's supervision and barrages of around 10 ballistic missiles during U.S.-South Korea drills. Pyongyang's consistent cadence of weapons demonstrations—often tied to regional exercises or anniversaries—signals near-certainty, though official verification of recent firings or an improbable diplomatic de-escalation could still influence resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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