Traders assign Barack Obama a 97.1% probability of avoiding arrest before the end of 2026 because no active federal indictment, grand jury action, or law-enforcement custody exists against the former president. Ongoing political referrals tied to 2016 intelligence assessments have produced document releases and public statements but no charges that meet arrest thresholds, consistent with statutes of limitations, presidential immunity precedents for official acts, and the absence of prosecutable evidence in reviewed materials. A former president’s Secret Service protection and the institutional caution surrounding such a step further reinforce the market’s assessment. Late-breaking developments capable of shifting odds would require the Department of Justice to file and execute an arrest warrant on new charges within the narrow remaining window, an outcome that remains outside established legal and procedural patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$20,961 Vol.
$20,961 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign Barack Obama a 97.1% probability of avoiding arrest before the end of 2026 because no active federal indictment, grand jury action, or law-enforcement custody exists against the former president. Ongoing political referrals tied to 2016 intelligence assessments have produced document releases and public statements but no charges that meet arrest thresholds, consistent with statutes of limitations, presidential immunity precedents for official acts, and the absence of prosecutable evidence in reviewed materials. A former president’s Secret Service protection and the institutional caution surrounding such a step further reinforce the market’s assessment. Late-breaking developments capable of shifting odds would require the Department of Justice to file and execute an arrest warrant on new charges within the narrow remaining window, an outcome that remains outside established legal and procedural patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volumen
$20,961Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign Barack Obama a 97.1% probability of avoiding arrest before the end of 2026 because no active federal indictment, grand jury action, or law-enforcement custody exists against the former president. Ongoing political referrals tied to 2016 intelligence assessments have produced document releases and public statements but no charges that meet arrest thresholds, consistent with statutes of limitations, presidential immunity precedents for official acts, and the absence of prosecutable evidence in reviewed materials. A former president’s Secret Service protection and the institutional caution surrounding such a step further reinforce the market’s assessment. Late-breaking developments capable of shifting odds would require the Department of Justice to file and execute an arrest warrant on new charges within the narrow remaining window, an outcome that remains outside established legal and procedural patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$20,961Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign Barack Obama a 97.1% probability of avoiding arrest before the end of 2026 because no active federal indictment, grand jury action, or law-enforcement custody exists against the former president. Ongoing political referrals tied to 2016 intelligence assessments have produced document releases and public statements but no charges that meet arrest thresholds, consistent with statutes of limitations, presidential immunity precedents for official acts, and the absence of prosecutable evidence in reviewed materials. A former president’s Secret Service protection and the institutional caution surrounding such a step further reinforce the market’s assessment. Late-breaking developments capable of shifting odds would require the Department of Justice to file and execute an arrest warrant on new charges within the narrow remaining window, an outcome that remains outside established legal and procedural patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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