OPEC has demonstrated institutional resilience despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed a major producer over quota disputes and regional tensions but left the core group intact. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, have continued coordinated quota adjustments and ministerial meetings through August and September, reaffirming production frameworks and monitoring compliance into year-end. Historical precedent of weathering prior departures supports trader views that formal dissolution requires sustained, coordinated withdrawal by multiple key producers, an outcome not observed amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Late-year escalations, such as additional major exits or collapse of the Declaration of Cooperation, represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La OPEP se disuelve en 2026?
¿La OPEP se disuelve en 2026?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$34,759 Vol.
$34,759 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$34,759 Vol.
$34,759 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC has demonstrated institutional resilience despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed a major producer over quota disputes and regional tensions but left the core group intact. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, have continued coordinated quota adjustments and ministerial meetings through August and September, reaffirming production frameworks and monitoring compliance into year-end. Historical precedent of weathering prior departures supports trader views that formal dissolution requires sustained, coordinated withdrawal by multiple key producers, an outcome not observed amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Late-year escalations, such as additional major exits or collapse of the Declaration of Cooperation, represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$34,759Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC has demonstrated institutional resilience despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed a major producer over quota disputes and regional tensions but left the core group intact. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, have continued coordinated quota adjustments and ministerial meetings through August and September, reaffirming production frameworks and monitoring compliance into year-end. Historical precedent of weathering prior departures supports trader views that formal dissolution requires sustained, coordinated withdrawal by multiple key producers, an outcome not observed amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Late-year escalations, such as additional major exits or collapse of the Declaration of Cooperation, represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$34,759Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC has demonstrated institutional resilience despite the UAE's May 2026 exit, which removed a major producer over quota disputes and regional tensions but left the core group intact. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, have continued coordinated quota adjustments and ministerial meetings through August and September, reaffirming production frameworks and monitoring compliance into year-end. Historical precedent of weathering prior departures supports trader views that formal dissolution requires sustained, coordinated withdrawal by multiple key producers, an outcome not observed amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions. Late-year escalations, such as additional major exits or collapse of the Declaration of Cooperation, represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities before December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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