Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, despite the United Arab Emirates' abrupt announcement four days ago to exit the cartel effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas restricting its output growth. This shock, the first major defection in decades, drove brief oil price spikes to four-year highs and speculation of fraying cohesion, yet core members including Saudi Arabia—OPEC's dominant producer—reaffirm commitment via recent ministerial statements and production adjustments, as evidenced in March 2026 OPEC+ releases emphasizing market stability. The broader OPEC+ framework incorporating Russia bolsters resilience against further splintering. Key catalysts ahead include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting to recalibrate quotas and monitor global supply amid projected surpluses, underscoring traders' view of adaptation over dissolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, despite the United Arab Emirates' abrupt announcement four days ago to exit the cartel effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas restricting its output growth. This shock, the first major defection in decades, drove brief oil price spikes to four-year highs and speculation of fraying cohesion, yet core members including Saudi Arabia—OPEC's dominant producer—reaffirm commitment via recent ministerial statements and production adjustments, as evidenced in March 2026 OPEC+ releases emphasizing market stability. The broader OPEC+ framework incorporating Russia bolsters resilience against further splintering. Key catalysts ahead include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting to recalibrate quotas and monitor global supply amid projected surpluses, underscoring traders' view of adaptation over dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$8,451Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, despite the United Arab Emirates' abrupt announcement four days ago to exit the cartel effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas restricting its output growth. This shock, the first major defection in decades, drove brief oil price spikes to four-year highs and speculation of fraying cohesion, yet core members including Saudi Arabia—OPEC's dominant producer—reaffirm commitment via recent ministerial statements and production adjustments, as evidenced in March 2026 OPEC+ releases emphasizing market stability. The broader OPEC+ framework incorporating Russia bolsters resilience against further splintering. Key catalysts ahead include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting to recalibrate quotas and monitor global supply amid projected surpluses, underscoring traders' view of adaptation over dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$8,451Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, despite the United Arab Emirates' abrupt announcement four days ago to exit the cartel effective May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas restricting its output growth. This shock, the first major defection in decades, drove brief oil price spikes to four-year highs and speculation of fraying cohesion, yet core members including Saudi Arabia—OPEC's dominant producer—reaffirm commitment via recent ministerial statements and production adjustments, as evidenced in March 2026 OPEC+ releases emphasizing market stability. The broader OPEC+ framework incorporating Russia bolsters resilience against further splintering. Key catalysts ahead include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting to recalibrate quotas and monitor global supply amid projected surpluses, underscoring traders' view of adaptation over dissolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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