President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw the United States from NATO—escalating in April 2026 over European allies' refusal to support U.S.-led operations in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict—have fueled speculation, yet traders price a 92.5% chance of no dissolution before 2027 due to formidable legal and procedural barriers. U.S. law requires congressional approval for exit, with a one-year notice period under the North Atlantic Treaty, while no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal to date. European leaders, including Estonia's defense minister affirming alliance endurance, are accelerating contingency plans like EU defense activation under Article 42.7, but ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions and the July 2026 Ankara summit underscore cohesion. Late-breaking U.S. policy shifts or multi-nation exits remain low-probability disruptors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La OTAN se disuelve antes de 2027?
¿La OTAN se disuelve antes de 2027?
Sí
$73,768 Vol.
$73,768 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$73,768 Vol.
$73,768 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw the United States from NATO—escalating in April 2026 over European allies' refusal to support U.S.-led operations in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict—have fueled speculation, yet traders price a 92.5% chance of no dissolution before 2027 due to formidable legal and procedural barriers. U.S. law requires congressional approval for exit, with a one-year notice period under the North Atlantic Treaty, while no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal to date. European leaders, including Estonia's defense minister affirming alliance endurance, are accelerating contingency plans like EU defense activation under Article 42.7, but ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions and the July 2026 Ankara summit underscore cohesion. Late-breaking U.S. policy shifts or multi-nation exits remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$73,768Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw the United States from NATO—escalating in April 2026 over European allies' refusal to support U.S.-led operations in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict—have fueled speculation, yet traders price a 92.5% chance of no dissolution before 2027 due to formidable legal and procedural barriers. U.S. law requires congressional approval for exit, with a one-year notice period under the North Atlantic Treaty, while no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal to date. European leaders, including Estonia's defense minister affirming alliance endurance, are accelerating contingency plans like EU defense activation under Article 42.7, but ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions and the July 2026 Ankara summit underscore cohesion. Late-breaking U.S. policy shifts or multi-nation exits remain low-probability disruptors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$73,768Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's repeated threats to withdraw the United States from NATO—escalating in April 2026 over European allies' refusal to support U.S.-led operations in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict—have fueled speculation, yet traders price a 92.5% chance of no dissolution before 2027 due to formidable legal and procedural barriers. U.S. law requires congressional approval for exit, with a one-year notice period under the North Atlantic Treaty, while no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal to date. European leaders, including Estonia's defense minister affirming alliance endurance, are accelerating contingency plans like EU defense activation under Article 42.7, but ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions and the July 2026 Ankara summit underscore cohesion. Late-breaking U.S. policy shifts or multi-nation exits remain low-probability disruptors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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