Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 53.5% yes, capturing the closely contested balance from four years of frontline stalemate, war fatigue, and intermittent diplomatic signals amid persistent military action. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal, relayed via U.S. mediators on March 31, was rebuffed by Russia's April 1 barrage of 700 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting Moscow's uncompromising territorial demands that Kyiv rejects absent firm security guarantees. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks remain paused but Russia expressed hope for resumption on March 26; economic sanctions and attrition losses pressure both sides. Progress in negotiations or de-escalation could boost yes odds, while renewed escalation or diplomatic breakdowns would favor no.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2027
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 53.5% yes, capturing the closely contested balance from four years of frontline stalemate, war fatigue, and intermittent diplomatic signals amid persistent military action. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal, relayed via U.S. mediators on March 31, was rebuffed by Russia's April 1 barrage of 700 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting Moscow's uncompromising territorial demands that Kyiv rejects absent firm security guarantees. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks remain paused but Russia expressed hope for resumption on March 26; economic sanctions and attrition losses pressure both sides. Progress in negotiations or de-escalation could boost yes odds, while renewed escalation or diplomatic breakdowns would favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$3,956Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 53.5% yes, capturing the closely contested balance from four years of frontline stalemate, war fatigue, and intermittent diplomatic signals amid persistent military action. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal, relayed via U.S. mediators on March 31, was rebuffed by Russia's April 1 barrage of 700 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting Moscow's uncompromising territorial demands that Kyiv rejects absent firm security guarantees. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks remain paused but Russia expressed hope for resumption on March 26; economic sanctions and attrition losses pressure both sides. Progress in negotiations or de-escalation could boost yes odds, while renewed escalation or diplomatic breakdowns would favor no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$3,956Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 53.5% yes, capturing the closely contested balance from four years of frontline stalemate, war fatigue, and intermittent diplomatic signals amid persistent military action. Zelenskyy's recent Easter truce proposal, relayed via U.S. mediators on March 31, was rebuffed by Russia's April 1 barrage of 700 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting Moscow's uncompromising territorial demands that Kyiv rejects absent firm security guarantees. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks remain paused but Russia expressed hope for resumption on March 26; economic sanctions and attrition losses pressure both sides. Progress in negotiations or de-escalation could boost yes odds, while renewed escalation or diplomatic breakdowns would favor no.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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