The market's overwhelming 93.8% implied probability for a 70-72 million third weekend reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional holdover strength following its record-breaking July 31 opening. Traders are pricing in sustained audience demand fueled by positive critical reception, strong word-of-mouth among MCU fans, and the film's position as a cultural event with no major competing releases this frame. Historical precedent for Spider-Man titles and recent tracking estimates around 65-72 million further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset into the 72 million-plus range would require even stronger-than-expected family turnout or viral social momentum, while a steeper drop below 68 million could only stem from an unforeseen external factor like severe weather impacting theater attendance across key markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTaquilla del tercer fin de semana de "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" (Lower Strikes)
Taquilla del tercer fin de semana de "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" (Lower Strikes)
70-72m 93.7%
72 millones o más 5.4%
68-70m 1.7%
<66m <1%
$78,459 Vol.
$78,459 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<66m
<1%
66-68m
<1%
68-70m
2%
70-72m
94%
72 millones o más
5%
70-72m 93.7%
72 millones o más 5.4%
68-70m 1.7%
<66m <1%
$78,459 Vol.
$78,459 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<66m
$10,860 Vol.
<1%
66-68m
$7,637 Vol.
<1%
68-70m
$20,733 Vol.
2%
70-72m
$9,204 Vol.
94%
72 millones o más
$30,025 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market's overwhelming 93.8% implied probability for a 70-72 million third weekend reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional holdover strength following its record-breaking July 31 opening. Traders are pricing in sustained audience demand fueled by positive critical reception, strong word-of-mouth among MCU fans, and the film's position as a cultural event with no major competing releases this frame. Historical precedent for Spider-Man titles and recent tracking estimates around 65-72 million further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset into the 72 million-plus range would require even stronger-than-expected family turnout or viral social momentum, while a steeper drop below 68 million could only stem from an unforeseen external factor like severe weather impacting theater attendance across key markets.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$78,459Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market's overwhelming 93.8% implied probability for a 70-72 million third weekend reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional holdover strength following its record-breaking July 31 opening. Traders are pricing in sustained audience demand fueled by positive critical reception, strong word-of-mouth among MCU fans, and the film's position as a cultural event with no major competing releases this frame. Historical precedent for Spider-Man titles and recent tracking estimates around 65-72 million further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset into the 72 million-plus range would require even stronger-than-expected family turnout or viral social momentum, while a steeper drop below 68 million could only stem from an unforeseen external factor like severe weather impacting theater attendance across key markets.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$78,459Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 93.8% implied probability for a 70-72 million third weekend reflects Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional holdover strength following its record-breaking July 31 opening. Traders are pricing in sustained audience demand fueled by positive critical reception, strong word-of-mouth among MCU fans, and the film's position as a cultural event with no major competing releases this frame. Historical precedent for Spider-Man titles and recent tracking estimates around 65-72 million further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset into the 72 million-plus range would require even stronger-than-expected family turnout or viral social momentum, while a steeper drop below 68 million could only stem from an unforeseen external factor like severe weather impacting theater attendance across key markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Será la recaudación de taquilla del tercer fin de semana de "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" menor a 72 millones?
97%
Sí
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
52%
¿Será la recaudación doméstica total de Spider-Man: Brand New Day entre 800 y 900 millones para el 31 de agosto?
51%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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