Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the recent extension of the bilateral truce through January 2027 have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 5–15% and 25–35% buckets for the average tariff rate on December 31, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials are discussing reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside agricultural purchases and financial services, during the Xi-Trump state visit and follow-on talks. Current Section 301 duties stand near 12.5% on many items, with weighted averages reported between 20% and 36% depending on exemptions and prior adjustments. Any finalized cuts or new levies before year-end could shift the distribution, while delays or renewed tensions over enforcement would sustain the current balance across mid-range outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5–15% 32%
<5% 20%
25–35% 19%
15–25% 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
<5%
20%
5–15%
32%
15–25%
18%
25–35%
19%
35% o más
1%
5–15% 32%
<5% 20%
25–35% 19%
15–25% 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
<5%
$182 Vol.
20%
5–15%
$90 Vol.
32%
15–25%
$20 Vol.
18%
25–35%
$20 Vol.
19%
35% o más
$474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the recent extension of the bilateral truce through January 2027 have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 5–15% and 25–35% buckets for the average tariff rate on December 31, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials are discussing reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside agricultural purchases and financial services, during the Xi-Trump state visit and follow-on talks. Current Section 301 duties stand near 12.5% on many items, with weighted averages reported between 20% and 36% depending on exemptions and prior adjustments. Any finalized cuts or new levies before year-end could shift the distribution, while delays or renewed tensions over enforcement would sustain the current balance across mid-range outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volumen
$787Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the recent extension of the bilateral truce through January 2027 have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 5–15% and 25–35% buckets for the average tariff rate on December 31, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials are discussing reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside agricultural purchases and financial services, during the Xi-Trump state visit and follow-on talks. Current Section 301 duties stand near 12.5% on many items, with weighted averages reported between 20% and 36% depending on exemptions and prior adjustments. Any finalized cuts or new levies before year-end could shift the distribution, while delays or renewed tensions over enforcement would sustain the current balance across mid-range outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$787Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the recent extension of the bilateral truce through January 2027 have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 5–15% and 25–35% buckets for the average tariff rate on December 31, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials are discussing reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods each way, alongside agricultural purchases and financial services, during the Xi-Trump state visit and follow-on talks. Current Section 301 duties stand near 12.5% on many items, with weighted averages reported between 20% and 36% depending on exemptions and prior adjustments. Any finalized cuts or new levies before year-end could shift the distribution, while delays or renewed tensions over enforcement would sustain the current balance across mid-range outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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